Homebuilders are cyclical stocks tied to interest rates, which makes them unappealing. x.com 

US homebuilders are a dead sector until mortgage rates come down. The homebuilder ETF broke down out of a Darvas box as rates drag the group lower, and AI-driven layoffs on the scale of a million people would hurt the housing market further. @great_martis sees global fixed mortgage rates, around the mid-6% range in the US, set to surge toward 8%, pressuring affordability. x.com  x.com 

Homebuilders such as Builders FirstSource are priced like trash, so any improvement in rate expectations should send them higher. Pricing in two or three rate hikes by year-end looks wrong with oil falling to $75, AI acting as a productivity tailwind and the midterms approaching. x.com 

Ugly housing conditions provide the contrarian sentiment for a major homebuilder bull run over the next 12 months. Bears investing through the rearview mirror are going to be proven wrong. x.com 

US homebuilders remain a place to avoid as Fed Chair Warsh's rate hike lands on an already weak housing market. Lennar reported orders down 9%, incentives running at 12% of the sale price and mortgage rates near 6.8%. x.com 

Home Depot is a best-in-class operator trading near 52-week lows, and it has historically come out of housing cycles stronger. Weak housing turnover has clearly been a headwind, but its balance sheet, scale, dividend and long-term pricing power still look very attractive. x.com 

Falling rates and buying in financials, consumer discretionary and Home Depot make US small caps a very good buy here with high probability. The drawdown exceeds 11%, as it did at the start of the Iran war, and daily RSI and MACD are at similar bottoms. x.com 

Homebuilder stocks are priced for a soft landing that the inventory data doesn't support. New home supply hit 10.3 months, the highest since February 2009, against a long-term median of about 6, after jumping a full month in May. In 6 of the 7 times it reached this level since the 1970s, the US was already in recession. Mortgage rates and record ownership costs keep buyers out, and when builders cut prices hard to clear supply, margins will take the hit and the sector will reprice. x.com  x.com 

US homebuilders look attractive because America remains structurally undersupplied with housing, and Berkshire Hathaway is buying quality builders while Wall Street focuses on near-term affordability pressure. Berkshire added about 2.74 million Lennar shares as elevated mortgage rates weigh on builder valuations, after acquiring Taylor Morrison and investing in D.R. Horton and NVR. Follow the smart money, but always mind the price. x.com  x.com 

As the AI infrastructure crash takes form, its recessionary effect suppresses bond issuance and powerfully caps yields, giving battered housing, mortgage and related stocks a lift. Starwood Property Trust, Rocket Companies and Builders FirstSource should get a powerful boost as yields fall, with huge short covering and fundamental improvement; many in the group trade well below book value. x.com  x.com  x.com