Homebuilder stocks are priced for a soft landing that the inventory data doesn't support. New home supply hit 10.3 months, the highest since February 2009, against a long-term median of about 6, after jumping a full month in May. In 6 of the 7 times it reached this level since the 1970s, the US was already in recession. Mortgage rates and record ownership costs keep buyers out, and when builders cut prices hard to clear supply, margins will take the hit and the sector will reprice. x.com  x.com 

US homebuilders are a dead sector until mortgage rates come down. The homebuilder ETF broke down out of a Darvas box as rates drag the group lower, and AI-driven layoffs on the scale of a million people would hurt the housing market further. @great_martis sees global fixed mortgage rates, around the mid-6% range in the US, set to surge toward 8%, pressuring affordability. x.com  x.com 

US homebuilders look attractive because America remains structurally undersupplied with housing, and Berkshire Hathaway is buying quality builders while Wall Street focuses on near-term affordability pressure. Berkshire added about 2.74 million Lennar shares as elevated mortgage rates weigh on builder valuations, after acquiring Taylor Morrison and investing in D.R. Horton and NVR. Follow the smart money, but always mind the price. x.com  x.com 

Lennar trades poorly as yields climb, hitting new 52-week lows, and it builds poor-quality homes. It is also engaging in activities aimed at propping up its earnings. x.com 

Lennar is a bad bet, because housing will not rise while a record affordability crisis is already here, and homebuilders should do poorly in coming quarters. The stock is fighting around $117, its 2021 peak and where its monthly 50-period moving average sits, and a drop below its 2005 level would be a big problem. x.com 

Homebuilders should benefit as the dollar falls, yields hit a wall and bonds catch a bid. Industries that gain from fading yields and a weaker dollar should stay the hottest hand for the coming months, and multi-month accumulation without selloffs reveals what the market is pricing in, beyond the headlines. Homebuilders, tied to mortgage companies, generally do well in this period; they may not offer the biggest gains but are less volatile than other lower-dollar plays. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Home Depot and homebuilders look awful and have broken below support. Both offer a lot of value and are way oversold, but they need interest rates, inflation and oil to come down before they can recover. x.com 

The housing market is about to tank, which hurts homebuilders such as PulteGroup and KB Home. Recent results show net income down 75%, gross margins down 25% and operating margins down 75%, with major discounts needed to clear inventory. Builders citing higher land costs while still buying land at inflated values to build zero-margin homes is bankruptcy writing on the wall. x.com 

Homebuilders such as Builders FirstSource are priced like trash, so any improvement in rate expectations should send them higher. Pricing in two or three rate hikes by year-end looks wrong with oil falling to $75, AI acting as a productivity tailwind and the midterms approaching. x.com 

Homebuilders are cyclical stocks tied to interest rates, which makes them unappealing. x.com