US homebuilders remain a place to avoid as Fed Chair Warsh's rate hike lands on an already weak housing market. Lennar reported orders down 9%, incentives running at 12% of the sale price and mortgage rates near 6.8%. x.com 

US homebuilders are a dead sector until mortgage rates come down. The homebuilder ETF broke down out of a Darvas box as rates drag the group lower, and AI-driven layoffs on the scale of a million people would hurt the housing market further. @great_martis sees global fixed mortgage rates, around the mid-6% range in the US, set to surge toward 8%, pressuring affordability. x.com  x.com 

US homebuilders look attractive because America remains structurally undersupplied with housing, and Berkshire Hathaway is buying quality builders while Wall Street focuses on near-term affordability pressure. Berkshire added about 2.74 million Lennar shares as elevated mortgage rates weigh on builder valuations, after acquiring Taylor Morrison and investing in D.R. Horton and NVR. Follow the smart money, but always mind the price. x.com  x.com 

Home Depot and homebuilders look awful and have broken below support. Both offer a lot of value and are way oversold, but they need interest rates, inflation and oil to come down before they can recover. x.com 

Homebuilders are cyclical stocks tied to interest rates, which makes them unappealing. x.com 

Homebuilders such as Builders FirstSource are priced like trash, so any improvement in rate expectations should send them higher. Pricing in two or three rate hikes by year-end looks wrong with oil falling to $75, AI acting as a productivity tailwind and the midterms approaching. x.com 

The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com  x.com 

The housing market is about to tank, which hurts homebuilders such as PulteGroup and KB Home. Recent results show net income down 75%, gross margins down 25% and operating margins down 75%, with major discounts needed to clear inventory. Builders citing higher land costs while still buying land at inflated values to build zero-margin homes is bankruptcy writing on the wall. x.com 

Homebuilders should benefit as the dollar falls, yields hit a wall and bonds catch a bid. Industries that gain from fading yields and a weaker dollar should stay the hottest hand for the coming months, and multi-month accumulation without selloffs reveals what the market is pricing in, beyond the headlines. Homebuilders, tied to mortgage companies, generally do well in this period; they may not offer the biggest gains but are less volatile than other lower-dollar plays. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Ugly housing conditions provide the contrarian sentiment for a major homebuilder bull run over the next 12 months. Bears investing through the rearview mirror are going to be proven wrong. x.com