Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Stablecoins and tokenization are clearly heading one way, and risk-reward in Coinbase, Robinhood, SECZ and Circle heavily favors buyers. In ten days, the SEC chair said tokenization rules are moving toward a long-term framework, the SEC allowed on-chain trading of tokenized stocks, and the CFTC sent crypto market rules to White House review. IBM linked to Swift's blockchain for 24/7 tokenized deposits, and ARK is tokenizing its venture fund holding OpenAI and Anthropic. x.comÂ
Stablecoins are the only logical payment rail if AI agents are to act economically, which favors Coinbase, Robinhood, Visa, Mastercard and Securitize, with Ethena and Sky as more niche plays. As agent counts grow, more agents transact and stablecoins carry those payments. Regulators have also pushed tokenization forward massively in the 10 days since the CLARITY Act failed to pass, and prediction markets in the same category could be a $1-5T market within three to five years. x.comÂ
Robinhood's management says it can 10x the business over the next decade as it expands beyond trading into prediction markets, tokenization and banking. Q2 revenue rose 32% to $1.31B, Gold subscribers reached 4.8M and platform assets $384B by August. Event contracts traded 13.6B in Q2, up more than 10x. Robinhood Chain went live July 1, stock tokens are available in over 120 countries, and the SEC opened a five-year pathway for tokenized US stock trading. Banking has passed $3B in deposits. … Show more
Platforms and assets serving compliant token fundraising stand to benefit from the SEC's proposed Reg CA, which pairs light private-placement burdens with public reach and immediate liquidity. Coinbase, which runs Coinbase Token Sales, and Robinhood gain from users, wallets, chains and distribution; Circle from raises in USDC; Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche as leading chains; Hyperliquid and Uniswap as liquidity venues. It is only a proposal and may tighten; back the shovels, not the projects. … Show more
Circle faces pricing pressure because stablecoin infrastructure has low barriers to entry, which is why it stays an underweight with only small exposure. The risk showed when Circle fell 13% as Stripe, Coinbase and BlackRock backed a rival stablecoin, Open USD. x.com x.comÂ
US regulated perps could be one of the most profitable narratives in the next six months as a mostly offshore market opens to US retail. Robinhood has a large retail base; Coinbase has Deribit liquidity and seeks stock perps. Hyperliquid could gain from sector validation despite competition. Lighter has Robinhood Wallet integration; Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum's stack under a deal designed to send part of protocol revenue to its ecosystem. Regulation and token value capture remain uncertain. … Show more
Crypto assets should reprice upward as purchasing power falls and nearly everything else costs more. Tokenization is still in its earliest stage and should reward patient investment in projects positioned to capture it; an altcoin portfolio centered on Ethereum and value-accrual tokens, with some Robinhood and Arc exposure, should outperform nearly everything over six to twelve months. Robinhood and Arc chains may drive much of the broader altcoin expansion. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coinbase is a bubbly stock priced as a proxy for crypto trading, yet experienced crypto users leave it for better exchanges. It works for beginners, where it can take advantage of unknowledgeable investors, but more than a decade of crypto use shows Coinbase gets replaced as soon as users find something better. x.comÂ
Coinbase's fundamental and technical stories now match, as Circle's leadership has changed sentiment for crypto names and wider crypto access connects directly to Coinbase's platform. The stock is showing relative strength against Bitmine and Strategy, with an undercut-and-reclaim of its daily 9/50 EMA cluster heading into FOMC that could produce a good move. x.comÂ
Coinbase should recover into a more diversified business when bitcoin recovers, yet it trades as if its only product broke. In nine months it added zero-commission stock trading, prediction markets at $100M annualized revenue, stock and pre-IPO perps, and derivatives at $200M annualized, and it receives about 50% of USDC economics. Bitcoin near $64K sits below its ~$87K mining cost, historically a buy signal. At 6-7x sales versus Robinhood's 18.6x, the risk/reward is favorable. x.comÂ
Buying bitcoin and ether directly beats owning Coinbase, which is pure garbage, its platform the worst. Over the past month Coinbase was flat while bitcoin rose 10% and ether 22%. @matthughes13 notes Coinbase stock started collapsing on great earnings last summer. x.com x.comÂ
Stablecoin issuance looks set to explode, lifting Circle, Ethereum, Solana, Coinbase and Robinhood. Per Bloomberg, Washington is weighing a public-private push of regulated dollar stablecoins overseas to reinforce the dollar and boost short-term Treasury demand. If enacted, issuance could top $500 billion or approach $1 trillion in two to three years. Circle is the likeliest issuer partner, Ethereum and Solana are the main settlement chains, and Coinbase and Robinhood gain as trading platforms. … Show more
