Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Tempus AI is still undervalued because its data business alone may be worth a large share of the company. Data and Applications revenue of about $400 million in FY26, growing at management's roughly 30% long-term rate, reaches about $676 million by FY28; at a conservative 12-14x sales that is $8.1-9.5 billion. That leaves the diagnostics business, with about $1.2 billion of revenue, valued at only about $4.5 billion. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is still wildly undervalued, worth about $21B over the next 12 months versus about $10B today. Data and applications, about $410M annualized and growing 28% at 73% gross margins, looks like solid SaaS and could reach $525M in FY27, worth $5.3-6.3B at 10-12x sales. Diagnostics, $1.2B annualized and helped by FDA approval of the xT CDx test, could reach $1.5B in FY27; at 10x sales, versus 13x for peer Guardant Health, that is about $15B. Longer-term forecasts are higher. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' compounding direct-to-consumer distribution makes it stupidly undervalued next to Tempus AI. Hims has $2.6B in trailing revenue at a $6.7B market cap, with 66.5% annual revenue growth from Q3 2021 to Q2 2026; Tempus has $1.4B in revenue, a $14.9B market cap and 40.4% annual growth. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's diagnostics-to-data-to-AI flywheel makes its roughly 7.2x forward sales interesting, about half Natera's and Guardant's 16x, though both grow faster. Q2 revenue rose 22% to $382.5M, Data Licensing & Modeling grew 36%, and 2026 guidance is about $1.6B of revenue and $65M of adjusted EBITDA. As a ~25% growth diagnostics company, ~7x may be reasonable; if growth reaccelerates toward 30%+, Data + Applications grows much larger and margins expand, the valuation could look very different. … Show more
Tempus AI may go lower near term because of valuation, leadership reputation and insider selling, despite an amazing business. With about 25% growth expected and profitability uncertain, it is not obviously cheap. Glassdoor reviews matter in medicine's high-trust setting, and ongoing insider sales echo founder patterns that ended badly. The data piece, about 5% of market cap, can earn a high multiple, so the stock looks reasonably priced if adoption continues. x.comÂ
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
Tempus AI's Moderna and Merck collaboration puts its oncology data and algorithms to work on cancer vaccines and immuno-oncology drugs, supporting the commercial value of its pharma data platform. The multiyear agreement adds to its licensing case; Q2 revenue rose more than 21.6% to $382 million, and the EPS loss of $0.04 beat the expected $0.20 loss. Sustained profitability remains prospective. Tempus AI could reach $145. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is applying Palantir's playbook to US healthcare. Proprietary data from more than 5,000 hospitals and two-thirds of US academic centers let it train a healthcare AI no one else can. At 4x sales it is priced like a lab, though it is an AI company. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a data company that happens to sell diagnostics, positioning it for the next re-rate in AI-enabled healthcare and drug discovery. It holds 45M+ de-identified records and 500+ petabytes, growing every time a clinician runs a test. Diagnostics funds the moat, and the data business is the moat, with 41% growth and 73% margins, a layer nobody can rebuild from scratch. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.comÂ
The new licenses strengthen Tempus AI's long-term $50-100B bull case by monetizing its clinical data in neurology as well as oncology. Per Tempus, Pathos agreed to pay $55M over five years to license a neurology dataset Tempus plans to build from hundreds of thousands of patient records. Tempus also says Bristol Myers Squibb expanded oncology data licensing through 2031 and will gain access to Lens. x.com x.com x.comÂ
