J Keynes
Growth Investment Research
The new licenses strengthen Tempus AI's long-term $50-100B bull case by monetizing its clinical data in neurology as well as oncology. Per Tempus, Pathos agreed to pay $55M over five years to license a neurology dataset Tempus plans to build from hundreds of thousands of patient records. Tempus also says Bristol Myers Squibb expanded oncology data licensing through 2031 and will gain access to Lens. x.com x.com x.com
Tempus AI is far more advanced in real-world clinical data and healthcare integration than richer-valued AI-medicine plays, at about a quarter of the valuation. It holds one of the largest multimodal medical datasets, over 500 petabytes linking cancer biology to treatments and outcomes, plus models such as Virchow, built with Microsoft. Its Lens platform is used by 19 of the 20 largest biopharmas. The Personalis deal deepens its data flywheel; Moderna and Merck expanded a vaccine pact with it. x.com
Tempus AI's new pharma contracts put cash payments behind its data and AI platform, beyond diagnostics. Bristol Myers Squibb renewed and expanded oncology-data and Lens access for $137.5M in fixed payments through 2031; Pathos agreed to pay up to $55M for 500,000 neurology records and updates over five years, depending on delivery. Together the deals total up to $192.5M, meaningful validation though not an enormous sum. x.com
Tempus AI's Moderna and Merck collaboration puts its oncology data and algorithms to work on cancer vaccines and immuno-oncology drugs, supporting the commercial value of its pharma data platform. The multiyear agreement adds to its licensing case; Q2 revenue rose more than 21.6% to $382 million, and the EPS loss of $0.04 beat the expected $0.20 loss. Sustained profitability remains prospective. Tempus AI could reach $145. x.com
Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.com
Tempus AI's latest news is good, even if that sounds crazy. x.com
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
Tempus AI's 2025 growth was less impressive than it looks: only half was organic, with the other half coming from the Ambry acquisition. x.com
Tempus AI is becoming a bigger health-tech player as pharma deals add a new services revenue stream beyond selling tests. BTIG's Mark Massaro raised his target to $80 from $70 with a Buy rating, mainly because Tempus will be the sequencing provider for Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine program. The Personalis deal and MRD momentum add to a strengthening long-term AI and precision-oncology story, despite near-term volatility. x.com
Tempus AI's growth story has become a real one, with Q2 revenue up 22% to $382.5 million, positive net income and EBITDA, a 73.5% gross margin and $816 million of cash. Its $1.5 billion Personalis deal owns the sequencing technology behind the Moderna-Merck mRNA cancer vaccine, whose strong Phase 3 melanoma results validated the bet. Piper Sandler upgraded it to Overweight with a $76 target, up from $56, citing Personalis and strong INTerpath-001 MRD data. $80 is support for the breakout. x.com
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.com
Tempus AI's $1.5B all-stock acquisition of Personalis is smart long-term positioning despite the dilution-driven dip. Owning Personalis's NeXT Personal MRD technology outright lets Tempus pair liquid-biopsy recurrence testing, one of oncology's fastest-growing areas, with its multimodal dataset and AI at scale. That extends Tempus from diagnostics into high-margin longitudinal monitoring and could strengthen its moat, though execution will decide it. x.com
