Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Tempus AI looks expensive today, though there's a good chance margins ramp hard over the next few years, in which case it is probably a buy here. Its next-twelve-month revenue multiple fell from 13.2x to 5.2x as the stock dropped 60% in six months. Revenue is expected to grow at a 24% CAGR, with EBITDA margins expanding from -1% in 2025 to 15-20% over four years, a possible path to $120-plus a share in three to four years. A fair valuation is uncertain, and $40 is key support. x.com x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.comÂ
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
Hims & Hers' compounding direct-to-consumer distribution makes it stupidly undervalued next to Tempus AI. Hims has $2.6B in trailing revenue at a $6.7B market cap, with 66.5% annual revenue growth from Q3 2021 to Q2 2026; Tempus has $1.4B in revenue, a $14.9B market cap and 40.4% annual growth. x.comÂ
Tempus AI may go lower near term because of valuation, leadership reputation and insider selling, despite an amazing business. With about 25% growth expected and profitability uncertain, it is not obviously cheap. Glassdoor reviews matter in medicine's high-trust setting, and ongoing insider sales echo founder patterns that ended badly. The data piece, about 5% of market cap, can earn a high multiple, so the stock looks reasonably priced if adoption continues. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's thesis remains intact after objectively strong earnings and a guidance raise. It looks less threatened by Anthropic than other software names because its datasets form its moat, for now. Software multiples remain a big question, and these stocks are struggling to catch a break, but the technical setup still looks good despite the pullback. x.comÂ
Tempus AI remains one to avoid despite an attractive chart, because the CEO's past 'malpractices' in the industry linger, which may explain how the stock has traded. x.comÂ
Tempus AI deserves a management-quality discount because of governance and credibility risk around Lefkofsky, not established medical malpractice. His history, including his Groupon tenure, how Tempus acquired Ambry, and unresolved allegations mean it should not be treated as a clean long-term compounder until cash flow, AI-derived revenue and related-party disclosures become much clearer. The stock may still trade well technically. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's selloff after it beat and raised guidance looks like a great deal, and a further drop would be a chance to buy more. x.comÂ
Personalis is rising because shareholders look increasingly likely to reject Tempus's takeover, not on hopes of a competing bid, so Craig-Hallum's downgrade misreads the move. Its Next platform will likely generate over $500 million of annual revenue, whatever Craig-Hallum says about the MRD market dwarfing Personalis's potential Moderna revenue. x.comÂ