Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Tempus AI's thesis remains intact after objectively strong earnings and a guidance raise. It looks less threatened by Anthropic than other software names because its datasets form its moat, for now. Software multiples remain a big question, and these stocks are struggling to catch a break, but the technical setup still looks good despite the pullback. x.comÂ
Tempus AI has a data moat no one has replicated: a multimodal, patient-linked genomic, clinical and imaging dataset at scale. It holds over 8 million imaging files, 1.5 million matched clinical and molecular profiles and 4.5 million sequencing samples, which drug companies leaning on AI increasingly need. It is expanding from oncology into cardiology, neuropsychiatry and radiology. Revenue grows 25% and gross margin rose from 32% in 2021 to 64%, though last quarter's profit was a one-time item. … Show more
Tempus AI's selloff after it beat and raised guidance looks like a great deal, and a further drop would be a chance to buy more. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is applying Palantir's playbook to US healthcare. Proprietary data from more than 5,000 hospitals and two-thirds of US academic centers let it train a healthcare AI no one else can. At 4x sales it is priced like a lab, though it is an AI company. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's diagnostics-to-data-to-AI flywheel makes its roughly 7.2x forward sales interesting, about half Natera's and Guardant's 16x, though both grow faster. Q2 revenue rose 22% to $382.5M, Data Licensing & Modeling grew 36%, and 2026 guidance is about $1.6B of revenue and $65M of adjusted EBITDA. As a ~25% growth diagnostics company, ~7x may be reasonable; if growth reaccelerates toward 30%+, Data + Applications grows much larger and margins expand, the valuation could look very different. … Show more
Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is still undervalued because its data business alone may be worth a large share of the company. Data and Applications revenue of about $400 million in FY26, growing at management's roughly 30% long-term rate, reaches about $676 million by FY28; at a conservative 12-14x sales that is $8.1-9.5 billion. That leaves the diagnostics business, with about $1.2 billion of revenue, valued at only about $4.5 billion. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's $1.5B all-stock acquisition of Personalis is smart long-term positioning despite the dilution-driven dip. Owning Personalis's NeXT Personal MRD technology outright lets Tempus pair liquid-biopsy recurrence testing, one of oncology's fastest-growing areas, with its multimodal dataset and AI at scale. That extends Tempus from diagnostics into high-margin longitudinal monitoring and could strengthen its moat, though execution will decide it. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's 2025 growth was less impressive than it looks: only half was organic, with the other half coming from the Ambry acquisition. x.comÂ
Tempus AI could catch a bid as a laggard in the hot medical AI space, and it could catch fire soon. Its setup is getting too hard to ignore, despite plenty of past scars on the name. x.com x.com x.comÂ
