Nicholas Mugalli
Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy
Dell is an elite supply chain operator, not a fragile low-margin hardware assembler, and should see a massive upward rerating. Adjusted operating income hit $5.93B versus $4.18B expected, operating margin topped 12.6% against a 9.4% estimate, and EPS was $7.04 versus $4.90. AI server revenue reaccelerated to $16.40B, total revenue topped $46.97B, and full-year guidance rose to $192B of revenue and $25.50 of EPS. x.com
Dell stands to benefit if the AI PC reclaims the primary computing role from the smartphone, as Jensen Huang suggested by comparing the two shifts. Nvidia's RTX Spark puts a deskside AI supercomputer in homes and offices, running next-gen agent workloads locally with no cloud, latency or data-center dependency. That is huge for Dell, and for Microsoft. x.com
Dell has broken through $500 and now targets all-time highs. x.com
Dell is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the CPU shortage, gaining share in AI servers, traditional servers, storage and PCs as demand accelerates well past supply. AI server revenue rose 757% to $16.1B with a record $51.3B backlog, and traditional servers grew 92% as agentic AI needs CPUs to run the work around GPUs. Full-year revenue guidance rose about $27B to a $167B midpoint and EPS guidance to $17.90, a rare raise. Before the earnings jump it traded at only about 22x forward earnings. … Show more
Memory costs remain an unresolved risk for Dell even after a quarter that proved the pre-earnings bearish lean wrong. Gross margin rose to 20.9% from 17.8% and the October quarter was guided to $49.0bn, but AI server revenue grew just 1.7% while backlog jumped to $95bn, so a mix shift toward traditional servers and storage flattered margin. The $74bn full-year AI target needs about 26% sequential AI growth, so memory costs hit the October quarter on a richer AI mix, still unquantified. x.com … Show more
Dell should easily trade above $500 after a very strong Q2 FY27 report. Revenue rose about 58% to roughly $47B, AI server backlog hit a record of about $95B, FY27 revenue guidance rose by about $25B, and management now expects AI server revenue to triple this year rather than double. That the stock sat at morning lows after such results says a lot about the current state of the AI trade. x.com x.com
Dell's AI server demand looks durable enough to push the stock to new all-time highs. First-quarter revenue rose 88% to $43.8B against a $35.5B estimate, with AI server revenue of $16.1B. FY27 guidance calls for $165-169B of revenue and $60B of AI server revenue, and management said demand will last through year-end without pull-forward from the second half. Estimates should rise sharply, and 7.2% short interest adds fuel. At 27x 2027 earnings Dell is no longer cheap. x.com x.com
Dell still looks expensive at about 20x FY28 estimated EPS, since the expected AI server guidance raise to about $75bn is already priced in; the rating stays Hold. Fiscal Q2 looks soft, with revenue estimated at $42.2bn versus a $44.5bn guidance midpoint and EPS of $4.70 versus $4.84 consensus. NVL72 shipment estimates are cut, enterprise and PC demand show early cooling, and Hon Hai is winning more SpaceX Rubin orders. Tier-2 neocloud buildouts and Vera CPU racks are positives. x.com
Dell can run higher as AI servers add about $54B of new revenue in twelve months. The infrastructure segment should be up roughly 75% on AI servers, and full-year revenue is guided to $165B-$169B versus $113B last year. The stock came in from its highs on tariff talk; another raise to the full-year guide is the thing to watch, because the current AI server figure implies revenue falls from here. Dell keeps flagging DRAM, NAND and CPU supply tightness as a cost risk. x.com
Dell should benefit from AI data-center construction because builders say almost every new facility runs on Dell or Super Micro servers. Sales rose 49% in the past year to $151B; Dell is 18% below its high and is an easy double from here. x.com
Dell's re-rating from hardware vendor to AI platform has largely happened, so the stock is not worth chasing at about $440, or 24-25x forward earnings after a 150% YTD gain and a 40% gap, even though the business is near-flawless. Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 88% to $43.8B and full-year guidance rose about $27B to $165-169B, with AI servers up 757% and a record $51.3B backlog. Risks include AI-diluted gross margins, ballooning receivables and inventory, pull-forward demand and Dell-financed sales. … Show more
Dell's AI server business is growing on a trajectory that should appeal to anyone who likes Nvidia's, driven by a massive public and private AI factory buildout with a huge number of racks still to sell. Revenue rose 58% to $47B and infrastructure revenue 89% to $31.8B. AI server orders hit a record $60.9B in the quarter and $131.7B over four quarters, with AI backlog at $95B and the pipeline multiples of that. AI customers exceed 6,500, and traditional servers and networking grew 122%. x.com … Show more
