Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike's valuation pays investors to wait for a turnaround that will take longer than expected. It trades at just 16x earnings, near its lowest valuation ever, with a roughly 5% dividend yield, and would need a 127% rally to regain its 200-week moving average. Revenue is projected to fall another 4% in FY2027, but the business will grow again; the market prices it as if it were disappearing. Unlike Novo Nordisk, Nike faces no patent cliff. x.com  x.com 

Nike could be re-rated lower as an apparel company with falling revenue and EPS that is struggling to show CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround is taking root after two years. Q1 revenue missed at $11.21B, FY27 revenue is guided down by a high-single-digit percentage versus a 2% expected decline, and adjusted EPS guidance of $1.15-$1.35 sits well below the $1.65 consensus, with weakness in China, sportswear and Jordan. Its 26.4x 2027 P/E is low only versus its ~30x history. x.com  x.com 

Nike's push to reposition as a premium sports brand looks like the right route to recovery, including in Greater China. New CFO Dave Denton was clearer, and Alex Arnault's board seat, Jordan's return to scarcity, elite athlete deals and less discounting support it. EPS was fairly strong and margins are improving; guidance looks set deliberately low to beat, since management says the decline largely stems from its own choices. The dividend is safe; a full turnaround may take 3-5 years. x.com  … Show more

Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's turnaround is going to take longer than expected, so its earnings no longer anchor the valuation. It may be time to value Nike as a sum of its brands rather than on EPS; at some point that collection will become underpriced, much as Tapestry did during Covid. x.com 

Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.com 

Nike's plan to shut a substantial part of its Beaverton, Oregon campus and move work to Singapore and India makes it a strong buy candidate now. Too much money was being spent on US employees doing a poor job designing and marketing the brand. Keeping only a few executive roles in the US should let Nike win big by moving overseas. x.com 

Nike needs the bottom 90% of society to return, or it faces deflation, which for Nike means depression. Inflationary spikes are eliminating demand for goods people don't need or can't afford, crashing their prices and raising inequality. Nike is down 80% from its peak and has broken its long-term 200-period moving average, a line reserved for depressions. It can bounce, but probably never regains its 2021 peak, since rebuilding the middle class will take decades. x.com 

Nike's valuation premium has been squeezed out just as CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround shows traction. P/S near 1.3x is a decade low, P/E is about 20x, and a 3.8% yield gives downside protection; Morningstar rates it Wide Moat with fair value above $90. North American wholesale revenue rose 10%, and Foot Locker's first positive same-store sales in four years suggest the wholesale repair is working. Curbing AJ1 and Dunk supply rebuilds scarcity, and the fall Investor Day could flip expectations. … Show more