Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.com 

Uber's rising free cash flow makes the weak share price and sentiment look disconnected from its business. The attached chart shows trailing free cash flow climbing toward $10 billion, while revenue grew 12.2% and active consumers 15.6% year over year despite a 26% share-price decline over the past year. x.com  x.com 

Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com  x.com 

Uber is well on its way to becoming a compounding machine: revenue and free-cash-flow growth have been strong and consistent, while its moat widens through network effects and its flywheel ecosystem. At 23x forward earnings it looks like a very interesting opportunity, and the bear narratives are often overblown. x.com 

Uber is one of the most interesting opportunities in the market, down 31% from its highs while printing more cash. The market treats it as a low-margin business that autonomous driving could disrupt, missing its real moat: distribution. A network of consumers, drivers and merchants is very hard to replicate and lets it add verticals without paying acquisition costs again. Uber also owns about 13% of Grab, down 85% and building financial services on the same model. x.com 

Tesla and Alphabet do not need to destroy Uber to hurt its shareholders; they only need to change the industry's economics. If autonomous vehicles lower cost per mile, pricing pressure follows, so Uber could post record ride volume and still earn less per ride. Uber's fight with Lyft already brought lower prices, incentives and margin pressure; two well-funded rivals with a far lower cost base will fight for the densest, most profitable markets, so assuming Uber's economics hold is aggressive. … Show more

Uber Technologies looks cheap against its cash earnings at $70.24. It trades at 17 times cash earnings, while software companies usually get 30 times. Thirty times next year's cash earnings implies fair value of $113.88–144.94, leaving the stock 38% below the low end. x.com 

Uber at about 13x forward EBITDA still looks too cheap for a global tollbooth, and CEO Dara Khosrowshahi is one to back. The quarter beat where it mattered: trips rose 20%, bookings 25% and EBITDA 33%, Delivery accelerated and the Q2 guide beat. Mobility revenue noise looked like take-rate and accounting effects, not weaker demand. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Autonomy could expand the ride market tenfold, giving Uber a long growth runway if it does. That is the true 10x opportunity, like ridesharing's expansion of the taxi market. Uber will be a $1 trillion company by 2035. Improved autonomous-vehicle margins are possible but uncertain. x.com  x.com  x.com