Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com x.comÂ
Uber has one of the best operating-leverage charts in the market, which makes the current selling hard to explain. The most likely reason is fear, raised by trouble in the Waymo partnership, that robotaxis will take share and erode the durability of Uber's ecosystem. Uber's trend so far is accelerating operating leverage; the open question is whether, when and how much that line ultimately bends. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Uber's demand-side scale could let it aggregate fragmented or commoditized autonomous vehicle supply, though judging by the stock price nobody believes this. @WaterworldCapi1 argues autonomy at scale removes the need for its driver network and invites many competitors. But scaling rivals may not be cheap, Uber need not build its own fleets, and the shift will take decades, giving a hybrid network time. The stock becomes interesting only if the price gets low enough. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.comÂ
Uber will suffer from autonomous vehicles, and at 21x EV/EBITDA the stock leaves no room for that risk. It becomes interesting only below 7x. x.comÂ
Uber's network could unravel as riders go straight to Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi apps and driver earnings collapse. Uber lobbies against autonomy while telling investors it will win it, and its flagship Waymo partnership has soured. Robotaxi apps are becoming the interface to the car, which a generic broker app cannot replicate. At about 17x earnings, Uber looks overvalued when it may not exist in its current form in 17 years; 5-10x trailing earnings is the most it deserves. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Uber remains a long-term holding because it is still in a dominant position and generating healthy free cash flow. A stock that has not rallied yet is not a loser on that basis alone. x.comÂ
Uber remains a stock to avoid because robotaxis threaten its take rate. That view could change if Uber adapts, pivots and proves it wrong. x.comÂ
