Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Uber's autonomous-vehicle fears are unlikely to go away, which is why its multiples are so low. Owning Uber means betting that Tesla's Robotaxi will not be a serious threat within 24 months, when those fears could be even higher. x.comÂ
Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Uber trades as if its entire business is already doomed by robotaxis, even though it is doing extremely well right now. The setup resembles software stocks after the AI scare: investors assumed software was finished, then many of those stocks rallied 50% when reality proved less disastrous than the narrative. Robotaxis may eventually disrupt Uber, or they may not. x.comÂ
Uber's demand-side scale could let it aggregate fragmented or commoditized autonomous vehicle supply, though judging by the stock price nobody believes this. @WaterworldCapi1 argues autonomy at scale removes the need for its driver network and invites many competitors. But scaling rivals may not be cheap, Uber need not build its own fleets, and the shift will take decades, giving a hybrid network time. The stock becomes interesting only if the price gets low enough. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Cybercab launch makes owning Uber scary right now. x.comÂ
Uber's large, successful network and marketplace give it a moat. The stock is in stage 4, but its fundamentals still appeal. x.comÂ
Uber's alleged fight against robotaxis in Washington, D.C., favors Tesla over Uber. @wholemars says Uber is trying to keep them out of the city and that riding in one builds public support. Sell Uber, buy Tesla. x.comÂ