Shopify the stock, not the company, is the problem: at about 10x sales and 60x forward earnings, expectations are so stretched that small disappointments could bring large multiple compression. The business is exceptional, with revenue up 34%, a beat, and a growth outlook raised to the low 30s from the high 20s. But the higher-quality subscription business grows much slower than merchant solutions, which carry different economics. Upside needs acceleration; downside needs only normalization. … Show more

Shopify faces a lot of risk in the AI revolution, which limits its upside at a $185 billion market cap and its current multiple. It has executed very well, and management may stay ahead so its infrastructure capitalizes on the agentic wave instead of being overrun, but that is not guaranteed. Against other plays and an already heavy software allocation, it is a candidate to offload, possibly after another chance at its all-time high. x.com 

Shopify is becoming the infrastructure layer between merchants and AI agents, making AI a source of new demand rather than only a threat. In Q2, AI-driven traffic and orders tripled, and new-buyer orders from AI channels came at nearly twice other channels' rate. Its Catalog gives agents over 1 billion products with 2x higher conversion, and MRR growth reached 19%. A 79x forward P/E premium is justified by accelerating growth, strong retention and improving profitability, if execution holds. … Show more

Shopify is one of the best businesses around, but its valuation is too difficult to justify owning it. @profpicsou's article asks whether AI will destroy SaaS and whether Shopify, now a near-unavoidable commerce machine with millions of stores and a huge ecosystem, is well placed as plugins connect to ChatGPT, and at what price. Its section on AI and agentic impact is especially worth reading. x.com 

Shopify's valuation still looks stretched against its prior lows, a concern that has never drawn a great rebuttal. Per GuruFocus, it trades at 10-11x EV/revenue versus roughly 6-7x in 2022. Having killed its fulfillment push to compete with Amazon FBA, Shopify is essentially a SaaS stock and should be valued like one. x.com 

Shopify's high P/E understates its value because the metric is weak in isolation. P/E looks backward, which is wrong for a company growing 30%. Shopify's EPS also falls when its Global-e and Affirm stakes drop, even if it sells no shares. Its high price-to-operating-cash-flow reflects very low capex and growth investments that are not deducted. Judging on P/E alone rarely lets you own the best companies. x.com 

Shopify is hard to own at 60 times free cash flow. A post the author replies to calls the valuation reasonable for a company accelerating revenue growth in the age of AI; the 60x free cash flow multiple is the objection. x.com 

Shopify is an outstanding company with elite management, but it is too expensive because it is evolving into a fintech and gross margins will likely compress over time. Merchant Solutions keeps growing faster than Subscriptions, even as GMV compounds exceptionally and take rates expand. It would be worth owning again at a lower valuation. x.com 

Shopify is one of the clearest application-software examples of AI materially accelerating growth. Sell-side channel checks point to strong ongoing momentum and AI product attach rates, while Tobi keeps pushing to be first with new products and integrations. The shares are near their pandemic-bubble peak, yet still look discounted to this opportunity; the multiple is lofty, but nowhere near its 2021 level. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shopify is very expensive at 13x sales because it is really a fintech company, yet it trades at a tech multiple that stretches reality. x.com