Shopify is expensive against its cash earnings, trading at 73x trailing and 51x next year's versus a typical 30x for software companies. At 30x next year's cash earnings, fair value is about $75-$95, so at $140.30 buyers pay about 47% over fair. The valuation also leans on forecasts, with the forward read 40% above the trailing one. This is a levels-only view from reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Shopify faces a lot of risk in the AI revolution, which limits its upside at a $185 billion market cap and its current multiple. It has executed very well, and management may stay ahead so its infrastructure capitalizes on the agentic wave instead of being overrun, but that is not guaranteed. Against other plays and an already heavy software allocation, it is a candidate to offload, possibly after another chance at its all-time high. x.com 

Shopify is becoming the infrastructure layer between merchants and AI agents, making AI a source of new demand rather than only a threat. In Q2, AI-driven traffic and orders tripled, and new-buyer orders from AI channels came at nearly twice other channels' rate. Its Catalog gives agents over 1 billion products with 2x higher conversion, and MRR growth reached 19%. A 79x forward P/E premium is justified by accelerating growth, strong retention and improving profitability, if execution holds. … Show more

Shopify's valuation still looks stretched against its prior lows, a concern that has never drawn a great rebuttal. Per GuruFocus, it trades at 10-11x EV/revenue versus roughly 6-7x in 2022. Having killed its fulfillment push to compete with Amazon FBA, Shopify is essentially a SaaS stock and should be valued like one. x.com 

Shopify is an outstanding company with elite management, but it is too expensive because it is evolving into a fintech and gross margins will likely compress over time. Merchant Solutions keeps growing faster than Subscriptions, even as GMV compounds exceptionally and take rates expand. It would be worth owning again at a lower valuation. x.com 

Shopify's high P/E understates its value because the metric is weak in isolation. P/E looks backward, which is wrong for a company growing 30%. Shopify's EPS also falls when its Global-e and Affirm stakes drop, even if it sells no shares. Its high price-to-operating-cash-flow reflects very low capex and growth investments that are not deducted. Judging on P/E alone rarely lets you own the best companies. x.com 

Shopify's valuation remains the obstacle to buying, even though the business has several ways to keep growing. It is moving higher on the watchlist, but it is not a buy yet. x.com 

Shopify is very expensive at 13x sales because it is really a fintech company, yet it trades at a tech multiple that stretches reality. x.com 

Shopify's 34% growth and 15% FCF margin give it an elite Rule of 40 score of 49, so the market will forgive its GAAP loss. That loss came from a $1.1B write-down on its stakes in Affirm, Global-e and Klaviyo, market volatility rather than business failure. Merchant Solutions grew 39% versus 21% for subscriptions, showing Shopify is really a fintech company, and Bloomberg flows show smart money buying the dip at $108. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shopify is hard to own at 60 times free cash flow. A post the author replies to calls the valuation reasonable for a company accelerating revenue growth in the age of AI; the 60x free cash flow multiple is the objection. x.com