Shopify is one of the clearest application-software examples of AI materially accelerating growth. Sell-side channel checks point to strong ongoing momentum and AI product attach rates, while Tobi keeps pushing to be first with new products and integrations. The shares are near their pandemic-bubble peak, yet still look discounted to this opportunity; the multiple is lofty, but nowhere near its 2021 level. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Agentic AI commerce could unlock Shopify's next major growth opportunity. Revenue is projected to more than double from $11.6B to $24.2B by 2028, while EPS is expected to rise from $1.48 to $3.32, more than 2.2 times. x.com 

Shopify is one of the best businesses around, but its valuation is too difficult to justify owning it. @profpicsou's article asks whether AI will destroy SaaS and whether Shopify, now a near-unavoidable commerce machine with millions of stores and a huge ecosystem, is well placed as plugins connect to ChatGPT, and at what price. Its section on AI and agentic impact is especially worth reading. x.com 

Shopify is becoming the infrastructure layer for modern commerce, not just a store builder. Payments, Shop Pay, lending, analytics and apps deepen its ecosystem, and even if AI makes building stores easier, merchants still need payments, checkout, inventory, customer data and fraud prevention. Revenue rose 34%, GMV 32% to $115.6B, and free cash flow margin hit 18%; growing over 30% while expanding margins at this maturity is impressive. President Harley Finkelstein called it a monster quarter. … Show more

Shopify delivered a strong Q2 and guides to revenue growth in the low thirties for Q3. Q2 revenue rose 34% to $3.58B, beating estimates by about $140M, gross merchandise volume grew 32% to $115.6B, operating income hit $488M and free cash flow was $654M, an 18% margin. Q3 guidance also calls for gross profit growth in the mid-to-high twenties and a free cash flow margin in the high teens to low twenties. x.com 

Shopify faces a lot of risk in the AI revolution, which limits its upside at a $185 billion market cap and its current multiple. It has executed very well, and management may stay ahead so its infrastructure capitalizes on the agentic wave instead of being overrun, but that is not guaranteed. Against other plays and an already heavy software allocation, it is a candidate to offload, possibly after another chance at its all-time high. x.com 

Software stocks are regaining momentum because the consensus that AI would slow growth and cut earnings was wrong. Palantir accelerated to 92% revenue growth with 325% GAAP EPS growth, and Shopify's revenue growth accelerated to 34%. Strong growth and valuation metrics that keep improving leave little not to like. x.com  x.com 

Shopify's 34% growth and 15% FCF margin give it an elite Rule of 40 score of 49, so the market will forgive its GAAP loss. That loss came from a $1.1B write-down on its stakes in Affirm, Global-e and Klaviyo, market volatility rather than business failure. Merchant Solutions grew 39% versus 21% for subscriptions, showing Shopify is really a fintech company, and Bloomberg flows show smart money buying the dip at $108. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shopify the stock, not the company, is the problem: at about 10x sales and 60x forward earnings, expectations are so stretched that small disappointments could bring large multiple compression. The business is exceptional, with revenue up 34%, a beat, and a growth outlook raised to the low 30s from the high 20s. But the higher-quality subscription business grows much slower than merchant solutions, which carry different economics. Upside needs acceleration; downside needs only normalization. … Show more

Shopify's high P/E understates its value because the metric is weak in isolation. P/E looks backward, which is wrong for a company growing 30%. Shopify's EPS also falls when its Global-e and Affirm stakes drop, even if it sells no shares. Its high price-to-operating-cash-flow reflects very low capex and growth investments that are not deducted. Judging on P/E alone rarely lets you own the best companies. x.com