Shopify is becoming the infrastructure layer between merchants and AI agents, making AI a source of new demand rather than only a threat. In Q2, AI-driven traffic and orders tripled, and new-buyer orders from AI channels came at nearly twice other channels' rate. Its Catalog gives agents over 1 billion products with 2x higher conversion, and MRR growth reached 19%. A 79x forward P/E premium is justified by accelerating growth, strong retention and improving profitability, if execution holds. … Show more

Shopify delivered a strong Q2 and guides to revenue growth in the low thirties for Q3. Q2 revenue rose 34% to $3.58B, beating estimates by about $140M, gross merchandise volume grew 32% to $115.6B, operating income hit $488M and free cash flow was $654M, an 18% margin. Q3 guidance also calls for gross profit growth in the mid-to-high twenties and a free cash flow margin in the high teens to low twenties. x.com 

Shopify is one of the best businesses around, but its valuation is too difficult to justify owning it. @profpicsou's article asks whether AI will destroy SaaS and whether Shopify, now a near-unavoidable commerce machine with millions of stores and a huge ecosystem, is well placed as plugins connect to ChatGPT, and at what price. Its section on AI and agentic impact is especially worth reading. x.com 

Agentic AI commerce could unlock Shopify's next major growth opportunity. Revenue is projected to more than double from $11.6B to $24.2B by 2028, while EPS is expected to rise from $1.48 to $3.32, more than 2.2 times. x.com 

Shopify's 34% growth and 15% FCF margin give it an elite Rule of 40 score of 49, so the market will forgive its GAAP loss. That loss came from a $1.1B write-down on its stakes in Affirm, Global-e and Klaviyo, market volatility rather than business failure. Merchant Solutions grew 39% versus 21% for subscriptions, showing Shopify is really a fintech company, and Bloomberg flows show smart money buying the dip at $108. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Shopify's moat may not last if AI can build and run a store end to end without a platform taking 3% of GMV. CEO Tobi Lütke says over 50% of its code is now AI-generated; if that reaches 80% and then 95%, merchants and new AI-native startups can use the same models directly. The $101B GMV, 34% revenue growth and 15% FCF margin are real, so the 16% drop after a beat prices the moat's duration, not the quarter. The bypass need not be sudden, only a growing share of new commerce spend. x.com 

Shopify is one of the clearest application-software examples of AI materially accelerating growth. Sell-side channel checks point to strong ongoing momentum and AI product attach rates, while Tobi keeps pushing to be first with new products and integrations. The shares are near their pandemic-bubble peak, yet still look discounted to this opportunity; the multiple is lofty, but nowhere near its 2021 level. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Amazon blocking Meta's Muse agent from its e-commerce site leaves Meta and Shopify more aligned than ever in agentic commerce, which is bullish for Shopify though the stock has not moved. Amazon's move resembles Salesforce trying to charge for data egress as its AI strategy. Agentic shopping should get people spending more freely and often by removing friction such as combing through bad reviews. x.com  x.com 

Shopify is an outstanding company with elite management, but it is too expensive because it is evolving into a fintech and gross margins will likely compress over time. Merchant Solutions keeps growing faster than Subscriptions, even as GMV compounds exceptionally and take rates expand. It would be worth owning again at a lower valuation. x.com 

Shopify can take on Amazon in agentic shopping by attacking weak spots Amazon can't address because it must protect its ads business and walled garden. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi described overtaking Snowflake by studying the competition and going after its weaknesses, a similar opportunity for Shopify. It isn't one-to-one: Prime and logistics mean Amazon could shut out agents and be fine, and @Appyg99 points to Amazon's fast fulfillment. x.com  x.com