ServiceNow's unexpected expense surge makes its rich valuation more vulnerable in a struggling software sector. Revenue rose 21%, but spending drove an EPS miss and one quarter of guided cRPO deceleration; wider market conditions could hurt near term. The 20% selloff looks excessive, and few software companies should benefit as much from AI. Management could deliver over 3-5 years, though the stock is only close to a buy again now; below $100 looks good for the long term. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Software's relative strength and sound finances make institutional rotation from semis plausible. It could lead while semis consolidate, despite slow growth at some firms; the market rewards cash flow, healthy balance sheets and manageable debt. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir, Shopify and Workday hold up; SAP's cloud and AI shift, Instacart's massive 10-month base, Veeva's massive five-year base and Atlassian's Stage 2 strength add to the case. Semis may still rally; the view can change. x.com  … Show more

Software stocks are a costly place to wait because the whole sector stays hated until sentiment shifts, so ServiceNow, Zeta, Reddit, AppLovin and Rubrik are off-limits until then. Even names not really disrupted by AI, like Reddit, trade with the group's sentiment, and many are down YTD in the biggest rally in years. Holding through that carries a big opportunity cost; better to pay a 10% premium after sentiment turns. Reddit has the users and will not be replaced by AI, but now is not the time. … Show more

Buying software stocks is the way to position against AI hype, since the AI narrative has devalued them. AI looks massively overhyped and its valuations cannot prove out, but shorting is impractical with volatility premiums this high. Agreeing with @RealZoltanT that SaaS is the best long if you want to be short OpenAI and Anthropic, SaaS is set to rip. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Zeta Global is being sold on broad SaaS fears that ignore its fundamentals. Its strongest years have come during midterm election years, it is very close to full-year GAAP profitability, and its return on ad spend is 6. x.com 

ServiceNow, Adobe, Amazon, Meta, Celsius, e.l.f. Beauty, Oracle and Duolingo will see further downside unless they rebound in the next few months, as investors sell them to offset taxes on massive gains in semiconductor names such as AMD, Nebius, Arm, Micron and SanDisk. x.com 

Zeta Global is benefiting from AI despite being sold off in the recent SaaS rout, and its stock is near the end of a long compression. During the March-April risk-off period it fell to its 200-week EMA and long-term support, where buyers stepped in. A multi-year support trendline is holding, and price is coiling in a narrowing range of lower highs and higher lows, the usual setup before a breakout. x.com 

Little apps will be dirt cheap to build and run, arguably already are, making SaaS vendors easier to replace. The existential threat is greater than six months ago, and from a technical perspective the SaaS bear case is running ahead of schedule. Vendors that adapt have a massive opportunity, and some companies may be safe. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Software companies face a multi-year repricing because AI has removed the scarcity that made software valuable. For 20 years building software required engineers, letting SaaS firms charge monthly fees forever; when anyone can build a working product in a weekend with Claude, software stops being the moat. Atlassian is down 75%, HubSpot 69% and Figma 86%, and layoffs show headcount no longer scales with output. Survivors will be those with distribution, data and trust underneath. x.com 

Ten quality stocks are worth being greedy on while the market sells the fear, given their drawdowns from all-time highs: Microsoft 28%, ServiceNow 47%, Netflix 45%, Uber 25%, Oracle 54%, Meta 13%, Spotify 37%, Salesforce 54%, Shopify 30% and SoFi 39%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com