Coherent's 6-inch substrate access, yields and margin concerns look mostly like timing issues in the optical buildout. Coherent is now one of the preferred ways to gain exposure and should participate meaningfully, despite those constraints. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

Coherent now has credible exposure to almost every optical architecture hyperscalers are exploring, and its Nvidia deal materially de-risks that roadmap. Nvidia's nonexclusive pact adds a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment, a $2B equity investment and access to five CPO product families. First CPO/NPO revenue targeted for H2 2026 matches Nvidia's timing. Data center and communications are already 72% of revenue. Qualification, standards, concentration and margins remain unsettled. x.com 

Indium phosphide laser capacity, not demand, now caps how fast 1.6T optics ship, and Coherent owns its laser fabs and grows its own substrate. That makes the InP squeeze Goldman flags through 2027 work in its favor. Record Q4 revenue of $2.05 billion rose 34% as six-inch InP wafers ramped, with 40.2% non-GAAP gross margin and 42%+ guided, at a 0.92 PEG. The risk: with about $3.55 billion of debt and cash burn, it can't absorb a 1.6T ramp slip; six-inch yield at volume is the test. x.com 

Lumentum and Coherent face a threat from microLED optics, which could replace laser optics with 20x less power and no temperature sensitivity by late 2027. The use case is short-reach, high-volume links under 30 meters. The copper versus optics debate is a distraction, since every AI cluster needs both and Credo now does both while Applied Optoelectronics handles long-haul; the bigger question is what microLED does to laser makers. x.com  x.com 

Coherent has a dated revenue catalyst: its PhotonLink is expected to start ramping in Q4 2026, with anchor customers secured for CPO and NPO. The median analyst target is $420. x.com  x.com 

Coherent is a structural bet on the data center shift from chips to connectivity, where optical components are now the bottleneck. Hyperscaler capex is forecast up 36% in 2026, and AI infrastructure spending is strategic necessity that won't be deferred in a recession. Nvidia's $2 billion investment locks in optical supply and gives Coherent revenue visibility through the decade. Its S&P 500 inclusion comes while the market prices a recession, setting up a repricing over the next 12 months. … Show more

Tighter Lumentum laser allocations would strengthen Coherent's pricing power if Marvell's rumored acquisition leads it to prioritize Nvidia and its own modules. Other buyers would face tighter supply, and hyperscalers would push harder to second-source lasers from Coherent. x.com 

Coherent should benefit as the shift from copper to light inside AI data centers accelerates, with co-packaged optics now in production and near-packaged optics pulling revenue forward. Nvidia's Spectrum-X Photonics switch is in full production, and TrendForce says CPO has entered mass production. Coherent CEO Jim Anderson says CPO and NPO engagement jumped in the past three to six months, nearly every large customer has a project, and its content per socket is similar in either design. x.com