Daniel
Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator
Tesla is priced for perfection at about 333 times earnings, a higher multiple than Palantir's 235, while its growth remains largely forward-looking. It is already priced as if robotaxis will have near-monopoly status, yet their large-scale rollout keeps getting delayed, and it can't become a multi-trillion-dollar company without a catalyst and better earnings. The long-term view stays very bullish, but at current prices it is one to avoid, with a good chance of lower prices in coming months. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's roughly 15x-sales valuation rests on a growth story while revenue is flat. A similar flat-revenue call in 2019 preceded a 20x stock run, but the current multiple still depends on that story delivering. x.comÂ
Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's seasonally strong fourth quarter makes shorting the stock here unattractive. A new bullish trend still needs a clear breakout above its 200-day moving average and price-channel resistance for confirmation. x.comÂ
Tesla's low forward growth and negative free cash flow weaken its long-term appeal. Next-twelve-month revenue growth is 8.9%, while increasing competition threatens its moat. Tesla is noise for now with Elon focused more on SpaceX; its ADR reading of 2.48 is below the 4-plus needed to turn a day trade into a swing, though earnings may change that. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation has tripled even though its revenue has declined over three years. x.comÂ
Tesla is expensive, but the market is not fully pricing in successful execution on FSD, robotaxis and Optimus, which give it multiple shots at entirely new revenue streams beyond selling cars. That counters @EarningsBrief's view that Tesla is already priced 5-10 years into the future. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.comÂ
Tesla still trades at roughly 300x earnings even after falling 14% today. x.comÂ
Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's falling energy and storage revenue undercuts what bulls call its next growth case. In Q3, that revenue fell 16% year over year; auto revenue fell 3%, operating income 56%, GAAP net income 43%, GAAP EPS 44% and free cash flow 62%. These terrible results make $500 a share look unlikely, even though the stock has not fallen 20%. x.com x.comÂ