StockWhale
Stock Trader, Trade Signals
SPY's current pullback looks brief because whale accumulation remains above the level associated with mid-term trend continuation. The reading is 87.74%; it fell below 80% before both recent major crashes. Barring a black-swan event or major unexpected fundamental shift, this decline looks closer to earlier minor corrections. The stock market still has significant upside, and fear-driven discounts remain opportunities. x.com x.comÂ
US large-cap equities are at the point in the cycle where a violent, fast snapback rally is due, with the S&P 500 well off its highs and Nvidia and Meta down sharply. The best days almost always follow the worst, and missing the 10 best days cuts long-term returns in half. Selling covered calls now, effectively a bet against the stock, locks investors out of the recovery for a few hundred dollars of premium. x.comÂ
The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a midterm-election drawdown, since history shows nasty 7-16% declines almost always come around midterms. Elevated 10-year yields and a strong dollar add risk, even though nothing looks bearish yet and rising yields have not dented the Nasdaq or mega-caps, and cheap volatility makes hedging attractive. SPY could reach $800 and still fall back to $750 within two months. x.comÂ
The S&P 500 rally likely has a few more days worth staying exposed to, because SPY's cumulative advance/decline line is still below its all-time high. The A/D line turned up at the end of March and its trend remains positive. The Fear & Greed Index keeps climbing, though, so it may be time to start dialing back exposure. x.comÂ
Hedge funds went too lopsided short before Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's earnings, setting up an aggressive short-covering rally if they deliver this week, as expected. SPCX crushed and ANT's S-1 was quite good, leaving a potential two-week rally on a razor's edge. x.comÂ
A new SPY low alongside a lower VIX high often, though not always, signals a near-term reversal. A roughly 30% VIX jump makes a shallow rally likely Monday or Tuesday, but after breaking below yesterday's low following a trend-line backtest, SPY still looks headed for $750 soon. x.com x.comÂ
Friday's extremely high volume in the S&P 500 suggests US large-cap stocks may be close to a bottom. The last bottom came last April during the tariff scare, at a reading of 3 on the charted indicator. This is a tentative technical read. x.comÂ
US equities want to go higher off extreme pessimism. The wall of worry reached DEFCON 1 levels over the past several weeks and the Fear & Greed Index dipped into Extreme Fear, leaving opportunity across beaten-down growth stocks and crypto. If the Iran conflict de-escalates at any point, this is about as strong a setup as any since late March. x.comÂ
US stocks remain vulnerable because leveraged long positions could amplify an unwind of the mania. The SPY-versus-long-Treasury trade has given back only a few weeks of its gains. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 faces short-term downside because a failed push to a new high leaves crowded bullish sentiment vulnerable to a break below. Despite record institutional accumulation and a long-term bullish position, five months of chop, a failed ATH and an attempted loss of the bullish trend favor hedging rather than adding leverage. x.com x.comÂ