Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.com 

Apple's roughly 40 times trailing and 37 times forward earnings make the shares too expensive ahead of next week's results. A short looks reasonable, though a sell-the-news reaction after earnings remains uncertain. x.com  x.com 

Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.com 

Apple's valuation pays too hefty a premium for its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 2.58; even if the market sees its hardware moat and ability to exploit others' AI investments despite underinvesting itself as a winning strategy, that premium is too high. x.com 

Apple's roughly 35x forward earnings premium looks unsustainable. If fear around the AI trade fades, its gains could stall or reverse. x.com  x.com 

Apple has the most predictable cash flows, including future cash flows, and that dependability appears to be what investors reward. Its P/E is about 40 versus 27 for Nvidia, 22 for Meta and 16 for Alphabet; Meta's free cash flow has turned negative. Leveraged build-out companies have been hit hardest while Apple has outperformed, but Apple investors could be wrong and the point at which its premium becomes too high remains open. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Apple is a sell here because buybacks are replacing innovation while its share price is dangerously extended. It is not spending on AI, in cloud services, making robots or pursuing global WiFi; its VR, Siri chatbot and iCar efforts have failed. Its flip phone follows Samsung's, and AirPods have poor battery life and microphones. The share price has held up, but only for now. x.com 

Apple's price tag isn't justified by its earnings growth or its lack of innovation. Analysts expect $153B of net income by 2028 versus $104B in 2024, roughly a 10% CAGR, so good returns need the elevated multiple to hold or rise toward 50x. Apple hasn't innovated since AirPods, Siri fumbled its door to AI, and its dominance rests on no one wanting to compete while consumer tastes shift fast, as BlackBerry showed. The stock isn't expected to crash, but likely won't rise over the next five years. … Show more

Apple will likely report its biggest sales ever in Q4 earnings and the stock should rip, even though the new foldable iPhone looks absolutely gross. x.com 

Apple's valuation no longer fits its growth, making the risk-reward unattractive despite an unmatched brand and business quality. Its forward P/E of about 35x is well above its long-term average and near its highest in years, while growth is forecast at mid-single digits, around 7% a year. After a 54% gain over the past year, Apple would be hit hard in a correction. A more reasonable valuation or a growth surprise would make it attractive again. x.com  x.com