Apple will likely report its biggest sales ever in Q4 earnings and the stock should rip, even though the new foldable iPhone looks absolutely gross. x.com
Andy
Co-Founder of The Rollup & The Rollup Ventures
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.com
Apple is a buy now on a strong holiday quarter ahead, its trusted brand and deep ecosystem integration, momentum from the foldable iPhone and an underrated future AI opportunity. x.com
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.com
Apple's new foldable iPhone Duo could sell strongly. It is the biggest form change to the iPhone ever, launched under a new CEO, and Apple buyers who want a foldable to do serious work such as AI tasks are price insensitive. The market initially faded the launch before reversing; it would have been better positioned as a productivity device with keyboard compatibility. x.com x.com x.com
Apple's Duo could spur a bigger upgrade cycle because its foldable form factor gives users a new reason to buy. It reportedly sold out within minutes, but Foxconn's roughly 60% assembly yield may exaggerate demand; sustained lead times as yields improve could support 2027 revenue. Early costs may pressure margins and local AI monetization remains unproven. Premium hardware and local AI could make Apple the world's most valuable company again. x.com
Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.com
Apple is worth buying in the $270-$280 zone on a market flush, with its AI upgrade cycle barely started. It has a $5 trillion ecosystem and just posted a record iPhone quarter. The 100-day moving average sits at $288.64 and the 200-day at $277.96, and $280 already caught the July dip. x.com
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.com
Apple's roughly 40 times trailing and 37 times forward earnings make the shares too expensive ahead of next week's results. A short looks reasonable, though a sell-the-news reaction after earnings remains uncertain. x.com x.com
Apple is emerging as Big Tech's safe haven because it is immune to the AI infrastructure spending that has hyperscalers burning cash. Its 10.1x EV/sales valuation is elevated versus history but arguably justified by renewed growth and that immunity. A multi-model signal is very bullish, with all four models risk-on. The one technical wrinkle: a full selloff extension could target $292, so tomorrow's product event risks a sell-the-news replay of February–March. x.com