SuperLuckeee
Day & Swing Trader, Options/Futures & Credit Spreads
Apple is worth buying in the $270-$280 zone on a market flush, with its AI upgrade cycle barely started. It has a $5 trillion ecosystem and just posted a record iPhone quarter. The 100-day moving average sits at $288.64 and the 200-day at $277.96, and $280 already caught the July dip. x.com
Apple will eventually break its all-time highs again because its ecosystem creates recurring revenue and customer lock-in, massive buybacks and cash flow support long-term price growth, and AI integration across devices should drive the next growth cycle. The stock held its 200-day average near $247, with further demand zones at $240, $234 and $225; the best entries come in fear, not strength. x.com
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.com
Apple's Duo could spur a bigger upgrade cycle because its foldable form factor gives users a new reason to buy. It reportedly sold out within minutes, but Foxconn's roughly 60% assembly yield may exaggerate demand; sustained lead times as yields improve could support 2027 revenue. Early costs may pressure margins and local AI monetization remains unproven. Premium hardware and local AI could make Apple the world's most valuable company again. x.com
Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.com
Apple's bull case is stronger than the bear case from higher memory prices, because 54% of iPhones will not support AI Siri. The motivation to buy a new device should outweigh price hikes. Fourth-quarter unit demand data is the thing to watch. x.com x.com
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.com
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.com
Apple is a buy now on a strong holiday quarter ahead, its trusted brand and deep ecosystem integration, momentum from the foldable iPhone and an underrated future AI opportunity. x.com
Apple will likely report its biggest sales ever in Q4 earnings and the stock should rip, even though the new foldable iPhone looks absolutely gross. x.com
Apple's valuation pays too hefty a premium for its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 2.58; even if the market sees its hardware moat and ability to exploit others' AI investments despite underinvesting itself as a winning strategy, that premium is too high. x.com
Apple's AI-enabled iPhone 17 cycle is driving demand so strong that TSMC chip supply became the bottleneck. March-quarter revenue hit a record $111.2B, up 17%, with iPhone revenue up 22% to $57B and services a record $31B, up 16%. Every region grew double digits, including 28% in China. Two billion active devices make it the stickiest ecosystem in tech, and buybacks cut the share count 3-4% a year. x.com
