Jason Luongo
Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies
Apple's AI-enabled iPhone 17 cycle is driving demand so strong that TSMC chip supply became the bottleneck. March-quarter revenue hit a record $111.2B, up 17%, with iPhone revenue up 22% to $57B and services a record $31B, up 16%. Every region grew double digits, including 28% in China. Two billion active devices make it the stickiest ecosystem in tech, and buybacks cut the share count 3-4% a year. x.comÂ
Apple's record results and Gemini-powered AI make it a high-conviction setup heading into April 29 earnings. Q1 revenue hit a record $143.8B, up 16%, as iPhone had its best quarter ever at $85.3B, up 23%, and Services crossed $30B for the first time, up 14%. A multi-year Google Gemini partnership powers Apple Intelligence and Siri across more than 2.5B active devices. The stock sits only 11% below its all-time high. x.comÂ
Apple's quarter was a clean beat with broad strength, and it should read as bullish unless management's call walks down June-quarter expectations. iPhone grew 22%, Services 16% and China 28%, gross margin reached 49.3%, and Apple announced a $100B buyback. x.comÂ
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.comÂ
Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.comÂ
Microsoft's 50% Azure growth and prospect of positive cash flow in 2027 make the stock look bulletproof. Headcount cuts, lower Anthropic spend, a better Copilot routed to cheaper tokens, and coming proprietary chips and model usage add to the case. It should get Apple's multiple plus recognition for cybersecurity. x.com x.comÂ
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.comÂ
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.comÂ
Apple is worth buying in the $270-$280 zone on a market flush, with its AI upgrade cycle barely started. It has a $5 trillion ecosystem and just posted a record iPhone quarter. The 100-day moving average sits at $288.64 and the 200-day at $277.96, and $280 already caught the July dip. x.comÂ
Apple is the cheapest optionality in the Magnificent Seven because it rents AI compute instead of building it. Per Goldman, six hyperscalers need about $1.42T of cumulative revenue by 2030 to earn 15% on 2026-27 capex, while Apple spends under $15B a year on capex and about $1B on Gemini licensing. If Jefferies' Chris Wood is right about a capex reset, Apple wins on the rerate; if the buildout keeps working, the builders close the gap. At 39x trailing, the iPhone 18 cycle must deliver. x.comÂ
Apple was hard to own into earnings, and guidance came in softer than expected. Services guidance was $30.74B versus $31.22B expected, and China $18.8B versus $19.6B. Memory and storage chip prices have quadrupled on AI demand, raising margin fears and pushing Apple to lift Mac and iPad prices up to 25%, with bigger iPhone hikes expected. Shares had surged into the print, so even a beat was priced in, and Siri AI underwhelms. Apple has mostly been rising on fluff news. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's sweeping price increases deliver the revenue-growth bull case. It is raising prices on current and even years-old products, refurbished units included, such as a 30% bump on the 2019 HomePod mini, and the iPhone 18 looks set for a $200+ increase. How demand responds is uncertain: people may keep devices longer, and if volumes nosedive Apple will likely add some forced obsolescence. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
