Wasteland Capital
Global Markets Investor, US, UK & European Assets
Apple's sweeping price increases deliver the revenue-growth bull case. It is raising prices on current and even years-old products, refurbished units included, such as a 30% bump on the 2019 HomePod mini, and the iPhone 18 looks set for a $200+ increase. How demand responds is uncertain: people may keep devices longer, and if volumes nosedive Apple will likely add some forced obsolescence. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Apple is far from ex-growth, delivering growth many companies would kill for. Revenue rose 17% and is accelerating, with record cash flow and EPS and a strong 14-17% growth guide, all before any hardware price increases. Memory costs will eventually hit margins, but Apple has a lot of room to raise prices, and it will make enormous money from AI. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.com
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.com
Apple's roughly 40 times trailing and 37 times forward earnings make the shares too expensive ahead of next week's results. A short looks reasonable, though a sell-the-news reaction after earnings remains uncertain. x.com x.com
Apple is emerging as Big Tech's safe haven because it is immune to the AI infrastructure spending that has hyperscalers burning cash. Its 10.1x EV/sales valuation is elevated versus history but arguably justified by renewed growth and that immunity. A multi-model signal is very bullish, with all four models risk-on. The one technical wrinkle: a full selloff extension could target $292, so tomorrow's product event risks a sell-the-news replay of February–March. x.com
Apple's AI-enabled iPhone 17 cycle is driving demand so strong that TSMC chip supply became the bottleneck. March-quarter revenue hit a record $111.2B, up 17%, with iPhone revenue up 22% to $57B and services a record $31B, up 16%. Every region grew double digits, including 28% in China. Two billion active devices make it the stickiest ecosystem in tech, and buybacks cut the share count 3-4% a year. x.com
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.com
Apple could grind steadily higher as the new product cycle from its iPhone event plays out, offering stability rather than outsized upside. x.com
Apple's bull case is stronger than the bear case from higher memory prices, because 54% of iPhones will not support AI Siri. The motivation to buy a new device should outweigh price hikes. Fourth-quarter unit demand data is the thing to watch. x.com x.com
Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.com
Apple is worth buying in the $270-$280 zone on a market flush, with its AI upgrade cycle barely started. It has a $5 trillion ecosystem and just posted a record iPhone quarter. The 100-day moving average sits at $288.64 and the 200-day at $277.96, and $280 already caught the July dip. x.com
