Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Nebius is limited only by how fast it can build, while Lululemon's product launches still aren't lifting sales. Nebius management says everything it can build will be sold, so capacity is the only limit on growth. Lululemon management says the response to its launches remains inconsistent, with no impact yet on the top-line trajectory. Shorting Nebius to buy Lululemon gets it backwards. x.comÂ
Lululemon is not worth bottom-fishing even though the bad news will eventually be priced in, because forward estimates keep falling and a bottom is hard to time before fundamentals bottom. The business is not a zero: its stores are still busy, if less than before. There are better places to look for a bargain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius's current margins leave virtually no valuation support for its shares. It should do well over the medium term, but remains a high-quality speculative story with massive execution risk. x.comÂ
Nebius can fall with neocloud peers because the market prices sector risk rather than each company's quality. Nebius and SPCX are better companies than 99% of the others, yet Nebius would not be immune to a WOLF or CoreWeave default; some weaker names may never recover. x.comÂ
Long-dated call buying and $150 put selling suggest institutions are positioned for upside in Nebius into 2027, a stronger bullish read than Marvell. Unusual Whales data show over $25 million in two call blocks, though one may be a roll, and over $12 million in $150 puts sold. The 19% two-day bounce lacked confirming options inflows, so Nebius could retest $170 before Nov. 10 earnings, with a roughly 18% implied move. x.comÂ
Nebius is a better option than CoreWeave going forward because its balance sheet is stronger. x.comÂ
SpaceX's planned tenfold neocloud expansion and tightening financing could pressure Nebius. Musk says debt markets have nearly shut for companies without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue, implying consolidation among the 200-plus neoclouds. Nebius looks less appealing than SpaceX, and picking a battle with Elon is not attractive. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon created its category but has no moat: Amazon dupes are indistinguishable from real Lululemon pairs, even to a regular customer. x.comÂ
Nebius's revenue growth has sharply outpaced its stock, compressing its forward valuation to the lowest since its IPO. Quarterly revenue rose from $146M to $582M over a year while the stock gained about 50%; forward EV/revenue fell from 24x to 6.5x. x.comÂ
Nebius's recently signed higher-margin deals are predominantly with pre-revenue neolabs, making it aggressive to project a few small, short-term contracts' economics across all available capacity for years. Short-term economics are very attractive now, and Nebius management has better insight into demand, but assuming all these customers renew at similar or better terms indefinitely seems unrealistic. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius stands out among neoclouds for its comparatively stronger balance sheet. In SergeyCYW's eight-company comparison, Nebius ranks strongest on relative financial position, with 1.0x debt/equity and positive EBITDA; its 11.1x net debt/EBITDA, negative free cash flow and reliance on external funding for expansion still bring leverage and dilution risks. x.comÂ
