Mindset for Money
CPA, Financial Analyst, Former Big Four Auditor
American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.comÂ
DoorDash's clear accumulation makes its continued selloff look unjustified. The stock is still falling despite that buying. x.comÂ
DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.comÂ
DoorDash is building the local infrastructure layer of a three-sided marketplace for all of local commerce, so heavy investment is expected and does not break the thesis. It is an incredible growth business run by excellent operators with an unlimited addressable market. Selling on worries about competitive intensity, earnings quality or the direction of the numbers misreads that. x.com x.comÂ
Potential buyout news involving DoorDash could fuel substantial upside for Instacart. It is finally starting to break out, and could easily double from here. x.comÂ
DoorDash's EPS beat is mostly tax-driven, and the apparent discount on its Instacart purchase will take time to matter. Despite a strong quarter, $1.06 GAAP EPS at a 3.9% tax rate would be about $0.85 at 23%, roughly in line with consensus; organic GOV growth stayed at 23%. DoorDash is paying 11.7x annualized Q3 EBITDA for Instacart versus its own 16x multiple, but the $17B deal won't close until late 2027 or 1H28, and management plans to reinvest more than 100% of first-year synergies. x.comÂ
DoorDash should recover from its post-earnings dip given strength in orders, revenue and EBITDA. Q2 marketplace GOV rose 36% to $33.1B, revenue was $4.45B versus $4.34B expected, adjusted gross margin 54.2% versus 51.8% and adjusted EBITDA $914M versus $843.4M. Q3 EBITDA guidance of $950M-1.1B brackets the $982.2M estimate. EPS of $0.46 missed $0.48 and free cash flow was light, on higher costs tied to more orders. x.comÂ
DoorDash's earnings per share are estimated to nearly quintuple over the next three years, from $2.62 in 2026 to $12.30 by 2029, an insane inflection. AI and autonomous delivery by robots and drones could add another major margin lever over time. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash faces a weak long-term setup because many people hate the service and don't have to use it, so they would switch as soon as a viable alternative appears. The stock is barely above its IPO price from almost six years ago; buying the 2022-2023 lows paid off, but that happened across similar names. DoorDash can still do well long term. x.comÂ
DoorDash's position is examined in a piece on how groceries, aggregators and AI agents interact, alongside Walmart and Amazon. x.comÂ