Venu
Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis
American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.comÂ
DoorDash's investment in and partnership with ALSO, which per DoorDash's Stanley Tang builds some of the most compelling purpose-built EVs, advances its pursuit of autonomous delivery at scale and is bullish for both DoorDash and Rivian. Tang will join ALSO as a board observer. x.comÂ
DoorDash's EPS beat is mostly tax-driven, and the apparent discount on its Instacart purchase will take time to matter. Despite a strong quarter, $1.06 GAAP EPS at a 3.9% tax rate would be about $0.85 at 23%, roughly in line with consensus; organic GOV growth stayed at 23%. DoorDash is paying 11.7x annualized Q3 EBITDA for Instacart versus its own 16x multiple, but the $17B deal won't close until late 2027 or 1H28, and management plans to reinvest more than 100% of first-year synergies. x.comÂ
DoorDash is a bet on human laziness, which is foolproof. Per The Kobeissi Letter, the stock jumped over 15% after 33% year-over-year revenue growth and strong guidance. x.comÂ
Serve Robotics' sidewalk-delivery model looks unlikely to work at scale, and its data moat is weaker than claimed. Without turning streets into something close to an Orwellian surveillance environment, theft, vandalism and security costs will likely make wide deployment uneconomic, worst in dense urban areas. Tesla's FSD data is transferable and already trains Optimus. Uber cut its stake to 2-3%, Starship Technologies looks stronger, and customer DoorDash is building its own robot, Dot. x.comÂ
DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.comÂ
DoorDash should recover from its post-earnings dip given strength in orders, revenue and EBITDA. Q2 marketplace GOV rose 36% to $33.1B, revenue was $4.45B versus $4.34B expected, adjusted gross margin 54.2% versus 51.8% and adjusted EBITDA $914M versus $843.4M. Q3 EBITDA guidance of $950M-1.1B brackets the $982.2M estimate. EPS of $0.46 missed $0.48 and free cash flow was light, on higher costs tied to more orders. x.comÂ
DoorDash is building the local infrastructure layer of a three-sided marketplace for all of local commerce, so heavy investment is expected and does not break the thesis. It is an incredible growth business run by excellent operators with an unlimited addressable market. Selling on worries about competitive intensity, earnings quality or the direction of the numbers misreads that. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash looks expensive against its cash earnings, at 68x trailing and 50x next year's, versus about 20x for retailers. A fair value of $87.02-$110.75, or 20x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, puts the price about 110% above fair, and even that leans on a forecast 31% above the trailing figure. This is a levels-only read from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
DoorDash's core business is fine and its investments make sense; the problem is a tough narrative, so below $160 it is probably fine to own for anyone not judged on monthly performance. The tape is unforgiving: investors keep asking about FY27 though management would never guide that far out, and investor relations has brushed off calls for an analyst day and tough questions on the investment cycle. x.com x.com x.comÂ