Alexander Bittan
Long-Term Frontier-Technology Investor, Neuralink/Anduril/Perplexity
DoorDash's investment in and partnership with ALSO, which per DoorDash's Stanley Tang builds some of the most compelling purpose-built EVs, advances its pursuit of autonomous delivery at scale and is bullish for both DoorDash and Rivian. Tang will join ALSO as a board observer. x.comÂ
American demand for delivery makes DoorDash hard to bet against despite reports it may acquire Instacart. Analysts target over $250 against a $169 share price. x.comÂ
DoorDash is building the local infrastructure layer of a three-sided marketplace for all of local commerce, so heavy investment is expected and does not break the thesis. It is an incredible growth business run by excellent operators with an unlimited addressable market. Selling on worries about competitive intensity, earnings quality or the direction of the numbers misreads that. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash may be seeking acquired growth because its market share looks to have peaked. Its interest in buying Instacart looks desperate given its poor platform, adding to the short-DoorDash side of the long-Uber pair. x.comÂ
DoorDash's clear accumulation makes its continued selloff look unjustified. The stock is still falling despite that buying. x.comÂ
DoorDash's earnings per share are estimated to nearly quintuple over the next three years, from $2.62 in 2026 to $12.30 by 2029, an insane inflection. AI and autonomous delivery by robots and drones could add another major margin lever over time. x.com x.comÂ
DoorDash's EPS beat is mostly tax-driven, and the apparent discount on its Instacart purchase will take time to matter. Despite a strong quarter, $1.06 GAAP EPS at a 3.9% tax rate would be about $0.85 at 23%, roughly in line with consensus; organic GOV growth stayed at 23%. DoorDash is paying 11.7x annualized Q3 EBITDA for Instacart versus its own 16x multiple, but the $17B deal won't close until late 2027 or 1H28, and management plans to reinvest more than 100% of first-year synergies. x.comÂ
Rivian should benefit from Uber's success because Uber is invested in Rivian's success. Per @N017_kng, Rivian's robotaxis will be available exclusively on Uber's platform. x.comÂ
Tesla's distraction with merging with SpaceX makes Rivian a great buy here. x.comÂ
DoorDash is a short on a roughly three-year horizon because personal AI agents will deal-hunt for users and drive its profits toward zero, as @citrini predicted. DoorDash's own new CLI lets agents search stores, find the best deals and check out directly, a sign this is in its third inning. If software is distributed headless through APIs and CLIs, it is unclear what distribution moats survive. x.com x.comÂ
Rivian's chart is growing more bullish as Uber invests up to $1.25 billion in the company, though the stock is still battling high-time-frame resistance. A post the author replies to notes that resistance looks to be weakening. x.com x.comÂ
