Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com  x.com 

Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more

Micron is a cyclical, and if DRAM sells at cash cost at any point in the next 15 years, which is likely over that span, owners will be in deep trouble. The historical playbook is to buy memory when it looks bleak and sell when it looks rosy. When take-or-pay contracts showed up in past industries, prices often fell within 18 months and the stocks dropped as spot prices fell. @BeenThereCap counters that Micron is on pace to earn its market cap in cash within eight years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Micron's memory leadership remains intact because it is sold out into 2027. A red day does not change those fundamentals; anyone arguing it has topped must identify which part of demand breaks and when. x.com 

Micron's expanded US investment plan, now over $250 billion through 2035, strengthens its long-term position while near-term supply stays tight. The plan, up from about $200 billion over 20-plus years, came with the first concrete pour at its New York site more than a quarter early, where up to four fabs aim to make 40% of its DRAM in the US. None of it adds supply soon, with Idaho's first wafers due mid-2027, while revenue jumped over 4x to $41.5 billion and Micron pledges supply discipline. … Show more

Micron's projections are set so high that even great years may not be enough to meet them. Samsung's Q3 results show the risk: revenue of $145.6B missed the $150.7B estimate, and operating profit of $80.2B missed $81.1B. x.com 

Slow capacity ramps and long-term deals should tighten memory supply next year and support earnings. Fundamentals look stronger than Q1: Micron expects 2027-28 tighter than 2026, with over 75% of FY27 output committed. Samsung, SK hynix and SanDisk also have multi-year deals. AI-trade positioning and sentiment remain risks; CXMT faces US restrictions and qualification barriers in HBM and hyperscaler RDIMM. A midterm/Christmas rally into 2027 remains the prediction. x.com  x.com 

Micron could benefit if memory demand remains strong through 2029. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he sees no sign of demand slowing by then and that "you can always use more." x.com 

Micron is at its top because memory stocks peak when margins peak, well before the shortage flips to oversupply, expected by 2028. Memory is tech's most brutally cyclical business: shortage, record prices, margins and capex, then new capacity arrives at once and becomes a glut. Micron trades at record highs on record DRAM prices, with memory's biggest capex wave under construction. In past oversupply cycles it fell 90% in 2000, 80% in 2008, 50% in 2018 and 47% in 2022. x.com 

Micron trades at 7x forward earnings, below its 11x 10-year median, because the market is pricing a cycle peak that does not look close. Revenue of $54.2B beat the $50.5B expected, and guidance of $61.5B topped $56.8B. Over 75% of 2027 output is contracted, customer agreements rose to 26 from 16, and management expects worse shortages in 2027-28; price bands on most contract revenue set a floor and cap upside. Consensus FY2027 FCF of $117B, a 9.8% yield, exceeds higher capex. x.com