The Wheelie Investor
Options Trader, Agentic Trading, Builder of AgenticTG
The S&P 500 has room to run well past 7,500 because it hit a record 7,022 without its biggest names fully participating. The Magnificent Seven, about a third of the index, remain well off their peaks, from Microsoft down 26% to Amazon down 2%; if they simply return to prior highs, the index rises sharply. Broad market breadth, strong earnings growth and compressed tech valuations provide the foundation. x.com
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.com
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.com
Buying the S&P 500 as a whole is unappealing because the index forces owners to hold the bad with the good, despite Warren Buffett's long-standing advice to buy it. Plenty of its companies are speculatively valued with no margin of safety, lack predictable sales, earnings or cash-flow growth, or are stingy with dividends and buybacks. The index's initial agreement to immediately include SpaceX, which IPOs next week, makes it even less attractive; its last-minute reversal matters only so much. … Show more
SpaceX stock is better left alone until IPO hype, price discovery and insider supply settle, even though SpaceX is an incredible company. Jay Ritter's data show US IPOs from 2001-2024 lagged the market by about 14.7% over three years. SpaceX listed at $135, briefly topped $200 and has already had a massive drawdown, and its first major lockup expiry is making hundreds of millions of shares sellable against an unusually small float. A great company is not a great investment at every price. x.com
Space stocks lost expected support when the S&P committee rejected fast-tracking SpaceX into the index, removing forced passive buying, while funds sell tech to raise cash for next Friday's SpaceX IPO. Rocket Lab's $150 looks like the top, with a likely lower high, perhaps dropping to $100 on Monday before rebounding to $120-130. x.com x.com
US large-cap stocks could decline in early 2027 as lockups expire on the mega IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, which may mark the AI cycle's top as insiders monetize. With SpaceX floating only 4.5% at IPO, post-lockup liquidity for the AI wave is about 3x the whole dot-com bubble's, or 50% higher adjusted for inflation. Absorbing it would require selling other S&P 500 stocks, with peak demand 3-6 months after the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. It may prove a leg down rather than the final peak. … Show more
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.com
Space stocks such as Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Planet Labs have likely topped on the SpaceX IPO, the same way Robinhood topped on its S&P 500 addition. x.com
US large-cap stocks face the biggest SPX crash ever, as three huge IPOs in a row lead investors to sell stocks to buy into each one, a pattern SpaceX's debut confirmed. Major IPOs pump 20-30% on hype while insiders sell hard from the first day, leaving buyers as exit liquidity, and the market will go lower. x.com
SpaceX's IPO looks richly priced at about $1.75T for an unprofitable, founder-controlled, thin-float company, with demand driven by forced index buying rather than confidence. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell added fast-entry rules, making funds such as QQQ mandated buyers, while fully invested index funds must sell existing mega-caps to fund the new weight. The founder keeps about 82.4% of the vote, and 90–180 day lockups will add fresh supply once the forced bid fades. x.com