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Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder
Buy-American policy should drive demand toward US chipmakers from the top down, favoring Micron over SK hynix and Samsung and Intel over TSMC. President Trump said all federal agencies must buy American, no excuses. The best-product argument still matters, but domestic policy will steer demand here. x.com x.comÂ
Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix look very cheap if their long-term agreements do not impose overly conservative price ceilings. Greater clarity on those pricing terms could send memory stocks up 30% in a single day. x.comÂ
Micron, SanDisk and SK Hynix look very bullish because Samsung says the memory shortage will worsen in 2027. x.comÂ
Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.comÂ
China's domestic market lets YMTC and CXMT threaten Micron, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix without entering US products. China receives 15-25% of smartphones and PCs and is on a path to at least 20-30% memory share over the next several years; current leaders are much too optimistic. History suggests at least a near-term semiconductor rally even if the AI trade has topped. It likely has not: agentic AI should give the trade room to run into 2027. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix earns a third to a half of its market cap each year in this upcycle, so it is hard to see how holders lose. Micron trades at 3.7x 2027 estimates at a similar market cap, but hynix has much higher DRAM share, suggesting sub-3x; its estimates look stale because Micron just reported and was updated sooner. Custom HBM differentiates it, bit scaling is harder, HBM cannibalizes DRAM, and an ADR could close the valuation gap. DRAM is a commodity, so more fabs mean more dollars. x.com x.com … Show more
HBM advances are creating strong, durable moats and long-term pricing power for Micron and SK hynix. x.comÂ
Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more
SK hynix and Samsung preferred remain bullish memory bets because the Korean names have a faster payback than Micron. The comparison is 3-4 years versus roughly eight for Micron, though Micron seems to be working fine. AI-trade tail risk could still cause steep losses in these names, as can happen even with low-P/E stocks. x.comÂ
US-domiciled AI infrastructure bottlenecks such as MP Materials, Micron and Intel could eventually earn a premium as critical AI inputs become national-security issues. Possible mechanisms: de-risking via long-term contracts or US government equity stakes, as with MP; more inflows from awareness and access, since many US investors cannot buy SK Hynix, making Micron the accessible alternative; and possibly preferential supply-chain contracts. Government stakes can help track the theme. x.com … Show more
