Sam Badawi
Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The FCC granted AST SpaceMobile's application to modify its authorization to launch and operate its SpaceMobile non-geostationary satellite system in low Earth orbit. The shares rose 6% on the news, in line with SkylitAI's earlier projection of gains. x.comÂ
Anti-SpaceX demand could bring AST SpaceMobile and Amazon a lot of business. If Avery Sullivan's interpretation of AST's E-band filing as a push into consumer broadband is right, that would be huge for AST. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff looks irrational: if SpaceX plans to compete directly as a mobile network operator, AST's satellite connectivity could shift from a useful partnership to an operational necessity for global carriers. The case depends on SpaceX actually pursuing that competition. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile still looks undervalued and may be near a bottom after the SpaceX rotation dragged down the whole space sector. Last month it launched its largest commercial satellites in low Earth orbit, the FCC just approved direct phone-to-satellite services, and Japan provided $926M. Technical indicators also look close to another buy signal. x.comÂ