Proposed FCC rules to more than double SCS spectrum are wildly bullish for AST SpaceMobile and SpaceX, the only two SCS license holders. AST trades below the value of its Ligado rights; its agreed deal has almost no chance of FCC blockage despite objections. AST could return to its highs sooner rather than later if the November 9 call clarifies production and Blue Origin keeps moving New Glenn toward the pad. New Glenn is the value unlock. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.com 

SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile has cleared a major regulatory hurdle: the FCC granted full commercial approval for its planned 248-satellite constellation. A return to $30 looks unlikely. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile's selloff looks irrational: if SpaceX plans to compete directly as a mobile network operator, AST's satellite connectivity could shift from a useful partnership to an operational necessity for global carriers. The case depends on SpaceX actually pursuing that competition. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile's satellite-based mobile connectivity is drawing excitement from the SpaceX IPO timeline, and the stock may finally break out of its range. It has not been an easy hold. x.com 

AST SpaceMobile remains unattractive on satellite handoff execution: Starlink's broadband service handles handoffs across hundreds of satellites, while ASTS is starting from zero after six years. SpaceX's proven handoff software makes Starlink's move to phone service more predictable. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile's drone-connectivity opportunity now has enacted US 800 MHz access, while its direct-to-cell rollout has reached a Philippine demonstration. The FCC opened the cellular bands AST leases from AT&T and Verizon to airborne drone command, communications and payload use; AST also holds global MSS rights in those bands. Its Philippine filing names Smart Communications, with over 61 million subscribers, and a temporary 30-day demo permit, not permanent commercial service. x.com  x.com  … Show more