Baidu's bullish setup has failed to get market support and may struggle to recover. Heavy declines in Korea's KOSPI over the past few days have weighed on Asian markets as a whole, and the stock has kept falling. x.comÂ
Glitch
Founder of Skylit
Baidu is mispriced as an old China search and ads company while it becomes a full-stack AI infrastructure, robotaxi and AI apps story. In Q1, its AI-powered core business grew 49% to RMB 13.6B, AI Cloud Infra revenue rose 79% to RMB 8.8B and GPU cloud revenue jumped 184%. Apollo Go delivered 3.2M fully driverless rides, up over 120%. Swing targets are $150-$175 over 2-8 weeks. Risks include China ADR headlines, AI cloud margin pressure, legacy ad weakness and risk-off moves. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities have a central role in the AI trade because Samsung and SK hynix supply most of the memory it needs. Despite the shakeout, the KOSPI leads the major markets shown at roughly +36% this year. The bullish lean faces a flow warning: Korean semiconductor ETF 20-day flows fell from nearly +$4B in June to about -$703M by October 18 as the index approaches rising support. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The PCE release will knock the bottom out of the KOSPI. The index already looks about to erase yesterday's gains. x.comÂ
Alibaba, JD.com, Nio and Baidu are criminally undervalued and could act as a hedge in the next broad market downtrend, over a 12-18 month horizon. Fundamentals explain the underperformance: retail sales turned negative year over year and new home sales are down 27%, showing years of PBoC easing have failed to reach the real economy. But that is exactly when the greatest buying opportunities form, much as with semiconductors like AMD in late 2024 and early 2025. x.com x.comÂ
Retail leverage and AI concentration have fueled the Korean equities rout. The KOSPI fell more than 14% in a week, its worst weekly decline since 2008. Korean equities will fall further if the rout in SK hynix and Samsung continues, though some dip buyers may already be lining up. x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities' bigger picture is concerning because breadth has collapsed, with the KOSPI held up only by two stocks that make up half the index. The KOSDAQ has erased all its gains since April 2025 and trades near six-year lows, while the KOSPI is down 46% in six weeks after twice testing its 200-day average. A short-term bounce of about 20% to fill this week's gap is possible. x.comÂ
Baidu is severely inefficiently priced below $200 and is under active institutional accumulation. x.comÂ
Korean stocks are falling on positioning and sentiment rather than fundamentals, and the KOSPI looks headed toward the 7,120-7,250 area after a precise rejection. If the market stays calm after SK hynix's US listing, that would signal another short-term downtrend. x.com x.comÂ
Korean equities are correcting like an altcoin after moving like one, going from euphoria to a bear market in barely a month. A rush of new investors, leverage and AI-chip hype drove the KOSPI up too fast, and much of the drop is that excess being flushed out, with war fears and rising oil adding pressure. x.comÂ
Baidu and Alibaba look primed with Trump visiting China, while JD.com is set up to break its long-term downtrend line. x.comÂ
Korea's KOSPI is dangerously concentrated, with Samsung and SK hynix making up 54% of the index, and a 90% rise in six months looks like euphoria and a top. Per @epictrades1, citing Korea's Financial Supervisory Service, over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts faced margin calls by July 13, and roughly 320,000-360,000 were forcibly liquidated. Index dominance by so few stocks works until it doesn't, and latecomers become exit liquidity. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ