Kraken Robotics is stuck in a trap as its key catalyst, the Anduril subsea ramp, is delayed by at least a year. That ramp likely needs a US battery facility and a Navy order to confirm, and the defense budget showed no large FY27 subsea-drone order. The market has also turned on drone and defense stocks after they ran ahead of a multi-year buildout, and without an uplisting from its junior exchange institutional ownership and volume stay thin. Second-half earnings may bring some support. x.com 

Kraken Robotics is not yet a buy despite falling almost 60% from its high. It should first report combined results with Covelya that preserve a credible growth and margin path, and the stock should form a base; the defence factor remains deeply out of favor. @DeepSailCapital argues it is near a bottom, expecting CAD 0.20 of 2028 EPS, mid-20s to 30s revenue growth and product ramps with Anduril. x.com  x.com 

Kraken Robotics is the subsystem prime for underwater drones, putting $3-5 million of content per hull in reach as Anduril and navies scale uncrewed fleets. Its offering spans batteries, sonar and navigation via Covelya/Sonardyne. Funds that bought near CAD $2 two years ago have spent four months clearing their positions, and that selling is mostly past. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Kraken Robotics looks expensive at 11x sales, or 2x next year's, when the industry usually gets 1x. At 1x next year's sales, give or take 12%, fair value is about $1.86-$2.37, leaving the $2.91 US-listed price 23% above the high end. The estimate leans on forecast sales 128% above trailing. This is a valuation-level read only, not fundamental work. x.com 

Ondas Holdings' valuation is hard to justify, and its long-term risk/reward looks less favorable than AeroVironment or Kratos. Per @rzayev7895's read of the earnings, growth comes from acquisitions rather than organically, share count rose 200-300%, market cap roughly quadrupled, cash comes from stock sales, and most backlog arrived with acquired companies. Ondas is more than drones, with critical private networks, but that does not change the valuation view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Kraken Robotics offers one of the best risk-reward setups in defense, giving exposure to Anduril's autonomy trend at a fraction of the valuation. It supplies SeaPower subsea batteries for Anduril's underwater drone programs, has 2026 product orders of $327-355M and guides to $290-320M revenue and $65-75M adjusted EBITDA, yet sits near a sub-$1B market cap after a 60%+ drop. It plans a full TSX listing in late 2026 or early 2027, and $10 is the target. x.com 

Norbit's Q1 miss doesn't break its AUV thesis, and the market's confusion over its changing character is the opportunity. Oceans fell 12% and gross margin fell to 53% from 62% because rental customers didn't repeat a strong Q1 2025, while its curved-array multibeam sonar for small autonomous platforms has no revenue in the numbers yet. PIR grew 111% on European defense contract manufacturing and Connectivity 45%. At about 21x 2027 earnings after 40% growth, it isn't priced as a compounder. x.com 

Kraken Robotics' stock already prices in a lot after its Covelya acquisition, even though the deal strengthens the business. Kraken bought six subsea firms at 10x EBITDA, adding exposure to areas with durable pricing power, but the market values the combined company near three times that multiple. To earn it, Kraken must integrate them, hold about 24% EBITDA margins, convert a record order book and diversify from a customer near 45% of sales. The first consolidated quarter comes in November. … Show more

Kraken Robotics' new $35M of orders is huge news, and the stock still looks extremely cheap as a direct beneficiary of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, after falling well below its March all-time high. CEO Greg Reid says its product portfolio, used across crewed and uncrewed defense and commercial platforms, should make up over 75% of 2026 revenue. x.com  x.com 

Ouster, Applied Optoelectronics, Ondas, AST SpaceMobile, IREN and Oklo are statistically more likely to lose money long term if bought today. Most unprofitable retail favorites end up with horrendous charts years later, and survivorship bias is far worse among them, as the 2021 vintage shows. Big winners often come from unglamorous names like Marathon Petroleum, up over 20x in six years. Applied Optoelectronics may work on real demand, but its CEO has failed for 30 years. Keep such bets small. … Show more