Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.com 

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla look like losers of the AI arms race, because AI has turned tech from an IP problem into a spending problem. Whoever spends most builds the biggest AI, and sunk costs force them to keep outspending each other by hundreds of billions a year on technology that may never return a real profit, like the internet buildout. Chip, neocloud and power suppliers win regardless, and at least a few of the big names could go bankrupt trying. x.com 

Alphabet is the most complete vehicle for betting on AI, and it is undervalued. x.com 

Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's robotaxis sound cool but there is no money in them, which explains the stock's decline. Jim Chanos (@RealJimChanos) called Tesla's disclosure of only 380,000 unsupervised Robotaxi miles over the past year a stunning admission. x.com 

Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla are spending billions on AI because more compute can drive more revenue, lower costs and create entirely new businesses. Valuing that capex as an expense before seeing the earnings power it creates would be the biggest mistake. As Bill Ackman put it, a company increasing growth capex while earning above-average returns deserves applause. x.com 

SaaS will have its time in the sun again, and now, while it is still hated, is the time to pick favorites and build positions. Bearish sector narratives don't last forever, and the view that all SaaS is being disrupted should ease somewhat this summer, though multiples may not return to prior levels. Some SaaS names have little moat against Anthropic and peers, but many, especially cybersecurity and Palantir, are strengthened by the agentic push. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Buying software stocks is the way to position against AI hype, since the AI narrative has devalued them. AI looks massively overhyped and its valuations cannot prove out, but shorting is impractical with volatility premiums this high. Agreeing with @RealZoltanT that SaaS is the best long if you want to be short OpenAI and Anthropic, SaaS is set to rip. x.com  x.com  x.com 

ServiceNow is the AI control tower enterprises use to deploy agentic AI, a disruption platform rather than a SaaS victim, yet it was dragged down in an indiscriminate software selloff. It beat and raised: subscription revenue grew 22%, the AI ACV target rose from $1B to $1.5B, $1M+ AI customers grew 130% and RPO hit $27.7B, with 35% FCF margins. Nvidia, Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud and Anthropic plug into it. At about 18x FY27 earnings it is a generational entry point. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more