Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla is too expensive right now; it would only start to look interesting under $250, with a small position, and more so under $200. It is hard to be too bullish while Elon Musk spends at least half his time on SpaceX, xAI, Starlink and other ventures. Combining everything into one $2 trillion company would be very interesting, since a SpaceX IPO alone should be nowhere near $2 trillion. The robotaxi and robotics themes are still worth watching over 5+ years. x.com 

Tesla is expensive, but the market is not fully pricing in successful execution on FSD, robotaxis and Optimus, which give it multiple shots at entirely new revenue streams beyond selling cars. That counters @EarningsBrief's view that Tesla is already priced 5-10 years into the future. x.com 

Tesla's bear-case risks compound faster than its bull catalysts because the stock is priced on optionality. DCF, comparable-company and precedent-transaction methods all put fair value materially below the current price, leaving it reliant on assumptions no standard method can verify. Raising 2026 capex from $20B to $25B+ for Terafab, AI5, Optimus and Robotaxi sacrifices near-term earnings, the HW3 issue is a real liability, and Robotaxi edge cases are resolving slower than bulls priced. x.com  … Show more

Tesla's fundamentals have not caught up with its valuation, since revenue has stayed basically flat for four years. x.com 

A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.com 

Tesla's $1.5T Elon premium looks unjustified while Musk seems to favor SpaceX for the AI compute buildout. Tesla shareholders missed almost the entire AI boom; owning xAI and building that infrastructure might have doubled Tesla's stock. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.48, down 4% year over year; if Tesla were a non-Musk company, four such quarters at 10x earnings would mean $19.20 a share versus $386. Long-term company prospects remain attractive, but the stock is still not worth buying back. x.com  … Show more

Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.com 

Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's stagnant car business and rising AI and robotics spending are squeezing current earnings before those bets have paid off. Q3 revenue was flat as auto sales slipped and regulatory credits collapsed; operating expenses rose 39%, operating income fell 56%, and EPS dropped from $0.43 to $0.24. The spend-now, profit-later strategy is testing investors' patience. x.com