Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Palantir has three fresh bullish catalysts. Michael Burry covered his short; Palantir signed a large partnership with NVIDIA to bring Nemotron open models into secure, air-gapped environments for US government agencies and critical infrastructure operators; and Trump bought at least $1 million more of its shares. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir is a business worth owning: its AI and data software helps customers easily understand their data, it is growing fast with long-term US government deals, and switching to a competitor is very hard and expensive for clients once they use it. x.comÂ
Enterprise demand for sovereign AI favors Palantir's transformation model. In a two-pronged AI economy, businesses can retain their IP and use low-cost open models while frontier labs compete for the last increment of intelligence. x.comÂ
Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has called Palantir "the single most important enterprise company in the world," and his past calls have been worth following. In 2025 the stocks he flagged included Nebius at $22, up about 1,200%, Intel at $21, up about 600%, and SanDisk at $275, up about 550%. Palantir at around $140 is his latest pick. x.comÂ
Palantir's valuation is extreme relative to established defense companies. At $137 a share and a fully diluted market cap above $350 billion, the same money could buy Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin with enough left for L3Harris. x.comÂ
Palantir should be in good shape amid the AI-lab drama, as governments and organizations will want to pass the liability of dealing with AI to a top-tier outside integrator. Elon Musk, Dario Amodei and Sam Altman pivoting to warnings that AI could kill people may make it much harder for AI to keep attracting investment, hurting neoclouds and chip and memory names that need hot training runs. x.comÂ
