Sandisk's earnings power looks underpriced because AI keeps NAND demand ahead of supply while long-term contracts lock in profits. AI needs enormous high-throughput storage, and new cleanroom capacity is slow to ramp, supporting margins; per Wall Street analysts, multi-year supply deals undercut the cyclical narrative. Q3 revenue rose over 250% to $5.95 billion, and its forward P/E keeps compressing. Evercore ISI raised its target to $3,100 and Bernstein to $3,000. August 5 results are the test. … Show more

Sandisk could be the memory supercycle's biggest winner because long-term NAND contracts may make earnings more durable than in past cycles. About $93.9 billion of floor-priced deals cover half of expected FY27 bit shipments and two-thirds in FY28 amid rising AI storage demand. Floors do not guarantee margins; management's roughly 50% adjusted free cash flow margin target for FY28-30 is not reported cash flow. Profitable contracts and sustainable cash generation could support a higher multiple. … Show more

Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk looks like an obvious buy at about 11x forward free cash flow because AI is creating ever-growing demand for both compute and storage. The memory boom is not going away soon, and there is no need to know exactly when the cycle slows, only that underlying demand remains incredibly strong. The biggest risk is looking back and wondering why it was not bought. x.com 

SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler's report of customer signals beyond fiscal 2030 adds storage to the long-duration AI hardware-demand case. He says those signals come through new-business-model partnerships; Micron and SK hynix in memory and Lumentum in photonics were already cited as signs of demand beyond 2030. x.com 

Networking, power and compute look more durable than cyclical memory in the AI buildout. Lumentum's revenue compounded year after year across the 2010s and 2020s, unlike Micron's; AWS revenue also compounded. Lumentum, Nebius, Bloom Energy and Credo should heavily outperform SanDisk and Micron from here, though AI itself remains heavily doubted. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's tightening grip on the NAND channel makes bearishness on NAND look misplaced. Per a memory supply-chain expert call relayed by @Jadzo1_, Sandisk is said to be requiring some distributors to accept non-cancelable, non-returnable terms with about 30% upfront deposits, pushing parts of the channel toward much harder long-term supply commitments. x.com 

SanDisk's data-center flash growth shows AI inference is becoming a larger storage customer. Data-center revenue reached $4.8bn, up 61% in a quarter and over 40% of sales; total revenue of $11bn and EPS of $49.51 beat expectations. Guidance of $12.4bn revenue and $56 EPS suggests feared supply normalization has not yet eroded pricing. Overweight, with a $2,700 target. x.com  x.com 

Sandisk's growth is coming entirely from higher prices, not more bits shipped, which makes it hard to sustain. Revenue grew 97% quarter over quarter as almost every hyperscaler raised capex to cover rising prices. Its roughly 80% gross margin is excessive and customers resent it; as long as demand far exceeds supply it can keep both, but supply eventually catches up and margins will erode. The open questions are how long new fabs take and whether Sandisk or rivals add the supply. x.com  x.com  … Show more

SanDisk should start its next leg up soon, as it says customers are giving it demand signals all the way out to the end of the decade, per @pequityresearch. x.com