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Apple risks sliding after WWDC without a one-more-thing surprise, as Siri AI looks less robust than expected and Apple remains way behind in using AI in its OS. Adding a CPU scheduler back to models as old as the iPhone 11 to make them faster also undercuts the main reason to upgrade: speed. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Apple is a sell here because buybacks are replacing innovation while its share price is dangerously extended. It is not spending on AI, in cloud services, making robots or pursuing global WiFi; its VR, Siri chatbot and iCar efforts have failed. Its flip phone follows Samsung's, and AirPods have poor battery life and microphones. The share price has held up, but only for now. x.comÂ
Memory-cost pressure, weak volumes and weak services should make Apple's quarter bad, giving the short a chance to work on this quarter alone. Other hardware companies this quarter also point to weakness, though Apple has been a terrible short so far. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's bull case is stronger than the bear case from higher memory prices, because 54% of iPhones will not support AI Siri. The motivation to buy a new device should outweigh price hikes. Fourth-quarter unit demand data is the thing to watch. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's roughly 35x forward earnings premium looks unsustainable. If fear around the AI trade fades, its gains could stall or reverse. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's weak Mac and iPhone demand and soaring costs threaten worse Q3 results and Q4 guidance than its weak Q2. IDC estimates Mac sales fell 11% y/y in Q3 after rising 13% in Q2. Counterpoint says Pro sales rose just 3% in the first three weeks while overall iPhone sales fell; lower-end models are absent this year. Foldable yields are reportedly 60%, and $100 price hikes may not offset costs. At $5 trillion, 39 P/E and 11 times sales, Apple's crowded 'safe haven' looks vulnerable. x.comÂ
Apple is a safe haven amid AI-stock volatility and will gain momentum if it persists over the next two weeks through the midterms. New products and another defensive day bring a momentum push toward $358, then $367 in November closer. x.comÂ
Apple's price tag isn't justified by its earnings growth or its lack of innovation. Analysts expect $153B of net income by 2028 versus $104B in 2024, roughly a 10% CAGR, so good returns need the elevated multiple to hold or rise toward 50x. Apple hasn't innovated since AirPods, Siri fumbled its door to AI, and its dominance rests on no one wanting to compete while consumer tastes shift fast, as BlackBerry showed. The stock isn't expected to crash, but likely won't rise over the next five years. … Show more
Apple looks unattractive at 31x next-12-month EPS as memory prices are set to hurt both its revenue and gross margins. Not investing heavily in AI capex or LLM training helps in the near term but carries longer-term risks. x.comÂ
Apple's balance sheet and lack of spend keep a bid under its stock whether the market rises or falls. That bid gets stronger with foldable phones that break. x.comÂ
Apple lags on AI and suffers from AI-driven cost shocks to components such as memory and storage. x.comÂ
