The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.com 

Crude oil is headed toward $300 a barrel, a call made on @WatcherGuru's video of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. x.com 

The US-Iran war, inflation fears and rising bond yields make Bitcoin's run to $100,000 much harder. A target that once seemed achievable now looks impossible in 2026. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Crude oil at $70 prices in far too much optimism and should see $80 before $60. The IRGC knows Trump wants a deal and has little appetite to restart the war, which makes further escalation easy to underestimate. If the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened within weeks to a month, the market will realize the disruption is not temporary, and any Iranian transit fees on Hormuz shipping would likely be passed on to buyers. US VP Vance says violence will be met with violence. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.com 

Bitcoin and Ether are rising as markets price in peace, with a US-Iran agreement reportedly set to be signed June 19 in Switzerland. Bitcoin is back above $65K, up 11% from recent lows, and Ether above $1,700, up 15%, as over $206B flowed back into crypto in 10 days. Asian markets added over $1 trillion and oil is falling, with Brent down more than 12% in a week as traders price out the geopolitical risk premium. Risk-on is back. x.com 

Whales waiting below while retail buys make Bitcoin vulnerable to a flush before a bear trap reverses it. After 3-5 days of chop, the path runs to $75K/$70K, rebounds to $87K, then targets $98K and $116K; the attached chart marks $126K as a mid-term target. x.com 

Crude oil could reach $150 within 30-60 days because Iran holds the leverage over Trump. Trump says the Iran MOU is not final, offers no immediate sanctions relief and threatens to resume bombing if he dislikes the deal. Iran's regime has every reason to let oil spike so the world blames Trump, so he needs to hit Iran harder than before. x.com