Alan Rogers
Full-Time Crypto Trader
Bitcoin and Ether are rising as markets price in peace, with a US-Iran agreement reportedly set to be signed June 19 in Switzerland. Bitcoin is back above $65K, up 11% from recent lows, and Ether above $1,700, up 15%, as over $206B flowed back into crypto in 10 days. Asian markets added over $1 trillion and oil is falling, with Brent down more than 12% in a week as traders price out the geopolitical risk premium. Risk-on is back. x.comÂ
Capital is rotating into crypto even as macro turns chaotic, which supports staying long bitcoin, ether, Solana and XRP. Bitcoin is up 12% since the Iran conflict began in late February, while the S&P 500 is down 1% and gold 10%. ETF flows on April 14 stayed positive: $411 million into bitcoin, $53 million into ether, $1.2 million into Solana and $11 million into XRP. Of $502 million liquidated in 24 hours, shorts were hit hardest. x.comÂ
The pause in attacks until the November 3 midterms is the catalyst for the next leg up in risk assets, including bitcoin, US small caps and long-dated Treasuries. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.comÂ
Bitcoin ETF demand has snapped back despite continued Ethereum ETF outflows. Bitcoin ETFs drew $301.2M last week after $1.77B left the two products over the prior two weeks; Ethereum ETFs lost $220.7M. Bitcoin rose one year after all four previous US midterms, with the next nine days away. Per @0xCryptoChan, prior recovery tops or subtops came 78-85 days after crossing the 3-6 month holder cost-basis line. Now at day 65, the next 2-3 weeks could get wild, though ETFs have changed cycle timing. … Show more
Crypto's coming run will be much larger than 2020's because stock-market and gold runs into 2026 exceeded those into 2020. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's runs into 2025 also exceeded those into 2019. Macro-risk ratios across stocks, metals, oil, PMI and crypto again resemble 2016 and 2020, positioning Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins for a major bull run. Focus on 2027-28; the one-year median altcoin return against Bitcoin is still -17.5%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is heading toward $77K from $74K after President Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will remain open under an Iran agreement whose final details are to be announced shortly, per a post the author quotes. x.comÂ
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Bitfinex whales are opening Ethereum longs at a pace seen only once before, in 2020 ahead of a 12x rally. Retail remains fearful around $2,300, but that positioning points to a rally. x.comÂ
