Mindset for Money
CPA, Financial Analyst, Former Big Four Auditor
Quality and price favor these eight stocks. Amazon improves as its multiple falls; Uber generates serious cash flow; Netflix is more profitable at a lower multiple; ServiceNow grew amid multiple compression. SoFi's appeal hinges on earnings near management's long-term expectations. McDonald's ranks among the world's highest-quality businesses at one of its more reasonable valuations in years. AI disruption weighs on Adobe's valuation; Brookfield compounds assets at a comfortable long-term price. … Show more
Cash generation and market values have diverged for these twelve beaten-down stocks. Over the long term, valuations tend to follow the cash businesses produce; the charts compare quarterly free cash flow with market capitalization for Uber, Netflix, Intuit, Adobe, PayPal, McDonald's, Snap, Duolingo, Chewy, Pinterest, Reddit and e.l.f. Beauty. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Uber will suffer from autonomous vehicles, and at 21x EV/EBITDA the stock leaves no room for that risk. It becomes interesting only below 7x. x.com
Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia, McDonald's, American Express, AutoZone, Pool Corp, Nu Holdings, Domino's Pizza and Salesforce stand out as quality companies trading under 20x forward earnings. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Uber's network could unravel as riders go straight to Waymo and Tesla Robotaxi apps and driver earnings collapse. Uber lobbies against autonomy while telling investors it will win it, and its flagship Waymo partnership has soured. Robotaxi apps are becoming the interface to the car, which a generic broker app cannot replicate. At about 17x earnings, Uber looks overvalued when it may not exist in its current form in 17 years; 5-10x trailing earnings is the most it deserves. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Many high-quality stocks still trade at deep discounts even with the S&P 500 just 2% below its all-time high. Uber, Nu, AppLovin, Inter, American Express, Klarna, SoFi, MercadoLibre and Booking trade at 6-32x 2027 earnings with five-year revenue CAGRs of 11-58%. Brookfield trades at 15x 2027 distributable earnings, with an 18% five-year growth rate. Consensus price targets include $101 for Uber, $501 for AppLovin and $2,200 for MercadoLibre. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
These ten businesses look ridiculously cheap against their own history on forward earnings. SoFi trades at 22.7x vs 48x in 2025, Uber 17x vs 24x last year, Netflix 20.6x vs 39x in 2024, Amazon 27x vs 45x in 2023, ServiceNow 31.1x vs 68x in 2024, Nvidia 19x vs 36x in 2025, Salesforce 16.2x vs 30-32x, Adobe 9x vs 26x in 2024, Microsoft 25.3x vs 32-35x, and Broadcom 20.5x vs 44x in 2025. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
McDonald's remains a little too rich at 20x earnings for mid-single-digit growth, even though it is one of the best businesses ever created and will probably be around in 100 years. That holds despite its second-worst drawdown in 20 years, down 23.6% from its highs, per Fiscal.ai. x.com
Amazon, ServiceNow, Reddit, Rollins and McDonald's look like buys because each trades near its lowest price-to-operating-cash-flow multiple of the past five years, and stocks are usually best bought below their normal valuation. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com