Just a Dude Who Invests
Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary
Quality and price favor these eight stocks. Amazon improves as its multiple falls; Uber generates serious cash flow; Netflix is more profitable at a lower multiple; ServiceNow grew amid multiple compression. SoFi's appeal hinges on earnings near management's long-term expectations. McDonald's ranks among the world's highest-quality businesses at one of its more reasonable valuations in years. AI disruption weighs on Adobe's valuation; Brookfield compounds assets at a comfortable long-term price. … Show more
Cash generation and market values have diverged for these twelve beaten-down stocks. Over the long term, valuations tend to follow the cash businesses produce; the charts compare quarterly free cash flow with market capitalization for Uber, Netflix, Intuit, Adobe, PayPal, McDonald's, Snap, Duolingo, Chewy, Pinterest, Reddit and e.l.f. Beauty. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Rollins is spending more just to stand still, so a ~50% drop does not make it cheap. With ~15-20% blended churn, 5% growth needs about 20% new customers, three in four just refilling the base. Sales and marketing per $1 of organic revenue added rose from $2.07 in FY25 to $2.37 in H1 2026, effectively maintenance capex. Q2 cut organic growth guidance to at least 6% and incremental margin to at least 10% versus a 30%+ target. AI search, an FTC non-compete ban and staff turnover add headwinds. … Show more
McDonald's, Reddit, Uber, Hermès, Constellation Software, ServiceNow and Fair Isaac are high-quality companies trading near their lowest valuations ever. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
These ten businesses look ridiculously cheap against their own history on forward earnings. SoFi trades at 22.7x vs 48x in 2025, Uber 17x vs 24x last year, Netflix 20.6x vs 39x in 2024, Amazon 27x vs 45x in 2023, ServiceNow 31.1x vs 68x in 2024, Nvidia 19x vs 36x in 2025, Salesforce 16.2x vs 30-32x, Adobe 9x vs 26x in 2024, Microsoft 25.3x vs 32-35x, and Broadcom 20.5x vs 44x in 2025. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Software stocks are a costly place to wait because the whole sector stays hated until sentiment shifts, so ServiceNow, Zeta, Reddit, AppLovin and Rubrik are off-limits until then. Even names not really disrupted by AI, like Reddit, trade with the group's sentiment, and many are down YTD in the biggest rally in years. Holding through that carries a big opportunity cost; better to pay a 10% premium after sentiment turns. Reddit has the users and will not be replaced by AI, but now is not the time. … Show more
Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, ServiceNow, UnitedHealth, Mastercard, MercadoLibre and Netflix offer the most quality for the price paid. As Warren Buffett put it, price is what you pay and value is what you get. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia, McDonald's, American Express, AutoZone, Pool Corp, Nu Holdings, Domino's Pizza and Salesforce stand out as quality companies trading under 20x forward earnings. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Rollins has fallen far faster than seemed believable. x.com
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, JPMorgan Chase and UnitedHealth are stocks worth holding forever. They aren't the flashiest names and won't deliver the best returns, but they offer consistency and can be counted on to keep growing for decades. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com