Netflix's incredibly solid business and already-corrected stock offer great protection if the market crashes. x.comÂ
Daniel
Self-Directed Investor, YouTube Investing Creator
Netflix is one of the most overlooked opportunities: at about 20 times forward earnings, the market prices it as if its best days are behind it. Management's 2030 ambitions include a $1 trillion market cap, $80 billion of revenue, $30 billion of operating income and $9 billion of ad revenue; from about $295 billion today, $1 trillion implies roughly 35% a year. It only needs to scale the core, build advertising and keep taking live sports from traditional TV. x.comÂ
Netflix's more reasonable valuation and efforts to get leaner make the stock tempting here. Its 18 P/E has come back down to earth and its forward valuation no longer trades at an expensive premium; Q3 earnings were solid, it laid off executives and 6% of staff, and it is significantly expanding live sports. Under $60 would be a smash buy. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. … Show more
Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.comÂ
Netflix's growing free cash flow leaves room to keep returning capital to shareholders. It repurchased about $4.8 billion of shares in Q3 and nearly $13 billion over the past 12 months, supporting long-term bullishness. x.comÂ
Netflix's problems are solvable while it prints money, making the stock a bargain at this price with a huge moat and great franchise. Its strategy should include more movies in theaters, sports only at a reasonable cost, a fixed ad business, and buying Take-Two to own a game studio and IP; GTA6 is a huge opportunity to connect with younger viewers and run ads in-game. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's improving engagement and record free-cash-flow yield make its continued stock decline look misplaced. Viewing hours rose 24% year over year; CEO Greg Peters said Q3 churn improved globally and in the US, beating forecasts. CFO Spence Neumann expects sustained double-digit revenue growth. x.com x.comÂ
Netflix's ad tier can improve its long-run economics while the stock prices in decline. It is the second most-watched platform on US TV behind YouTube; ad-tier members pay subscriptions and generate ad revenue, with room to improve fill and pricing. Revenue growth, margins and buybacks underpin an Overweight rating and $103 target, 46% upside at the preview price. The quarter was solid, but the soft Q4 guide and ad forecast cut from $3B to ~$2.7B are setbacks the author sees as fixable. x.com … Show more
Netflix's stock and content quality look poor, pointing to a slow grind lower. x.comÂ
Netflix looks fine here as a megacap with predictable earnings, and it is one of the last expenses people cut in a recession. Its product has mass appeal, and options flow looks constructive at current levels. x.comÂ