Ashton Invests
Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research
CoreWeave's forward numbers look even stronger than its 112% revenue growth, as the AI infrastructure buildout keeps moving at an unbelievable pace. Q2 revenue hit $2.58 billion. Backlog stands at $104.2 billion, more than $25 billion of new customer commitments were added in Q3, Q3 revenue guidance is $3.45-3.60 billion, and full-year guidance was raised to $12.4-13.2 billion. x.com
CoreWeave could be undervalued because its backlog gives strong visibility into future demand. Its revenue backlog reached $99.4 billion at the end of Q1, up from $66.8 billion a quarter earlier, though it will not all become revenue quickly. The key question is how efficiently CoreWeave converts that backlog into revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow; if execution stays strong, the market may be underestimating how large the business can become. x.com
Rising GPU rental rates and Anthropic's compute margins challenge claims of collapsing demand for CoreWeave's capacity. The WSJ reported Anthropic's first-half revenue of $16.3B against $9B in compute and infrastructure spending; Bloomberg reported its Q3 compute margin above 40%. Long contracts and fully amortizing loans cushion demand declines but cap upside. Despite the challenging neocloud model, CoreWeave's risk/reward is by far the best and its quality well ahead of peers. x.com x.com … Show more
CoreWeave's pricing power is overlooked amid financing fears, making it potentially the most misunderstood AI stock right now. It had over $104B in Q2 backlog and signed $25B in net new commitments over six weeks. Short-term contracts approach $40M per MW annually versus about $7M on active capacity, but that rate cannot be applied fleetwide. A $4.2B convertible carried a 2.875% coupon despite near-15% unsecured bond yields; $35B debt, dilution and capacity-conversion risks remain. x.com
CoreWeave's reliance on continued financing to deliver large AI orders is drawing greater credit-risk concern. Rising bond yields signal those concerns and could weigh on future growth and shareholder returns as the market reassesses the model. x.com
CoreWeave's revenue ramp has barely begun as AI shifts from bursty model training to always-on inference, which needs permanent dedicated infrastructure. It has about $2.50 of guaranteed, legally binding revenue for every $1 of liability. Revenue of $5.1 billion in 2025 is guided to $12-13 billion in 2026, with a contracted backlog of about $131 billion. The chart shows a triple bottom with strong support near $80, an accumulation zone that has marked the bottom over the past 12 months. x.com
CoreWeave is the obvious big opportunity that people hunting for the next big thing miss. Revenue went from $229 million in 2023 to $5.1 billion in 2025, effectively a different company and the fastest any cloud provider has reached $5 billion a year. Its $99 billion backlog is nearly 20x its entire 2023 revenue, already under contract. x.com
CoreWeave's financing looks more vulnerable amid a debt-market pullback for AI-data-center-dependent companies. Elon Musk says access has almost entirely shut off in recent weeks for firms without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, and expects few of the 200-plus neoclouds to survive consolidation. x.com
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.com
AI funding is easing as lower credit-insurance costs could reopen funding. CoreWeave CDS fell to ~1,040bp from above 1,100bp; Oracle says growth should fund itself from FY29. Google kept its $195–205B 2026 capex guide, expects more in 2027 and is renting third-party compute despite margin headwinds, supporting Nebius and CoreWeave pricing power. Microsoft’s Azure growth accelerated to 48%, while Meta and Microsoft credit spreads eased. A bigger rally needs further credit easing. x.com x.com … Show more
CoreWeave's risk is buildout speed: each new build needs capital before the last pays for itself. Its analysis shows $35.6B of loans lasting about nine months beyond customer contracts; $14.6B is due in 2031-32 as final contract cash arrives. IREN's Microsoft project loan matches its contract, but $6.3B of convertible bonds mature in 2031-33, mostly after contracted cash ends; low shares mean cash repayment. Slower AI demand growth could let both earn back projects before funding more. x.com
CoreWeave's 3.2x 2027 revenue multiple makes it one of the most attractive stocks in the market. x.com
