Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit is not a sustainable business because its volunteer moderators are, in large part, far-left extremists. The point came up after Polymarket reported that a man accused of plotting an ISIS-inspired mass shooting moderated the r/doordash subreddit. x.com 

Reddit's share price is collapsing even as its fundamentals accelerate. Average revenue per US and international user is accelerating, growth is speeding up and the business is showing signs of operating leverage. x.com 

Reddit's human conversations are gaining value as AI content proliferates, supporting advertiser spending and AI data licensing. Revenue grew 61% last quarter, with margins in the 40s, but US user growth slowed to 6%. Advertisers are paying more each quarter and AI labs pay for Reddit's data. Overweight; $200 target. x.com 

Reddit's 20.99% drop reflects the structural weakness in its moat that the latest earnings confirmed. Management said search referrals were choppy and traffic more volatile late in the quarter, and that referral visibility remains low as it builds a daily destination rather than drive-by traffic. The market hates uncertainty; this could still work later, and the stance would change if the price action earns it. x.com 

Google's AI Mode no longer drives traffic to Reddit, weakening its distribution. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said Google still crawls Reddit heavily but no longer sends it the traffic it once did, and Reddit cannot count on that traffic returning. x.com 

Reddit is turning into a high-margin AI data infrastructure business, with a path to over $500 million a year in data licensing. Its Google and OpenAI deals already bring in more than $130 million annually at margins above 90%, institutions own 93.5% of shares with $9.1 billion of net buying, and the market underestimates this. A post the author replies to cites Reddit's CEO saying Reddit is the most-cited source across LLMs, with S&P 500 inclusion and deal renewals on the horizon. x.com  x.com 

Reddit carries Pinterest-like downside to a 10x P/E if investors decide North American user growth is toast, while the stock is priced on everyone playing for big numbers from new lab deals. x.com