Caterpillar is trading on P/E and valuation expansion rather than growth, with 2026 revenue the same as in 2023. It will be attractive to short after its stock split; for now, put premiums are too high. x.com 

Caterpillar is an easy short because its price assumed revenue would double, and 24% growth is underwhelming by comparison. That stands even after the stock jumped premarket on what @brent_e_trader called a huge earnings beat and raise. x.com 

Caterpillar's strong fundamentals should eventually help its shares find support once investors agree on a new multiple. The stock is down 35% from its peak after a parabolic run; continued separation of gross profit from operating expenses would be welcome. x.com 

Caterpillar is expensive against its earnings at 25x next year's EPS, versus the 19x its industry usually gets. At 19x the $32.43 forecast EPS, give or take 12%, fair value is about $542-690, so at $811 the stock sits 18% above the top of that range. Forward EPS is 40% above trailing, so the view leans on forecasts, and it is a valuation-levels read rather than fundamental work. x.com 

Caterpillar is priced like a turbo-charged Walmart, which is worse for a cyclical company. A quoted post notes it trades at 35x next-twelve-month earnings while EPS estimates are at a record high; its past three big buying opportunities came at about 30x at notable earnings troughs. x.com 

Caterpillar should gradually climb much higher after a pullback, because the market looks more like 1998 than 2000 on Jesse Livermore's hand-drawn chart pattern. Michael Burry is shorting Caterpillar, but that is standing in front of a freight train, with liquidity, leveraged ETFs and gamma squeezes driving most of the buying. x.com 

Caterpillar looks like a prime short because it trades on AI-style hype without earnings to match. Its quarter-on-quarter numbers aren't proving out: last quarter it earned less than last September, and revenue versus last year doesn't look great. The stock ran up hard even with rates at their peak and likely to stay there for a while. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Caterpillar's CEO cutting his options exposure early is a warning sign. He discretionarily reduced his total options exposure by 30%, fully exercising his largest tranche even though it does not expire until 2031. x.com 

Caterpillar's dip below Wall Street's average price target is a rare opportunity after a massive second-quarter double beat. Adjusted EPS was $8.17 against a $5.71 estimate, and sales were $20.5 billion against $18.36 billion expected. x.com 

Caterpillar has been repriced from a century-old industrial into an AI growth stock at peak euphoria, and insiders who see that as temporary sold $87 million of shares in three months. The rerating came as hyperscalers ordered its engines and generators to power AI data centers. The stock now sits at Livermore's point 9, the test before selling short, as the market enters a correction phase. x.com